Predictive Analytics
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Emerging Topics Community: What Are the Chances We Will Lose More Than $1 Million?
In this episode Joe Alaimo interviews Joan Barret, Achilles Natsis and Tony Pistilli to discuss total risk analysis, a technique that provides a consistent methodology for answering questions like “what are the chances we will lose more than $1 million?” -
Comparison of Risk Adjustment Programs—California Medicaid Managed Care Versus CMS Medicare Advantage, PART II
Risk Adjustment (RA) is a key component for CMS Medicare Advantage program and California Medicaid Managed Care program. While both RA programs follow generally accepted basic principles, their underlying methodologies and assumptions are quite different. Due to recent events, such as COVID-19 Public Health Emergency and Medicaid redetermination delay and restart, it adds complexity to Risk Adjustment. This is a hot topic in the industry and has significant impact to health plans. Keeping current with Risk Adjustment program changes and understanding the commonalities and differences of these two government Risk Adjustment programs is important to our health actuaries. This article compares and contracts these two risk adjustment programs’ methodology and assumptions as well as special considerations due to serving different populations. This is Part II of the two articles on this topic. -
Comparison of Risk Adjustment Programs—California Medicaid Managed Care Versus CMS Medicare Advantage, PART I
Risk Adjustment (RA) is a key component for CMS Medicare Advantage program and California Medicaid Managed Care program. While both RA programs follow generally accepted basic principles, their underlying methodologies and assumptions are quite different. Recent events, such as COVID-19 Public Health Emergency and Medicaid redetermination delay and restart, have added complexity to Risk Adjustment. This is a hot topic in the industry and has significant impact to health plans. Keeping current with Risk Adjustment program changes and understanding the commonalities and differences of these two government Risk Adjustment programs is important to our health actuaries. This article compares and contrasts these two risk adjustment programs’ methodology and assumptions as well as special considerations due to serving different populations. -
Factorization Machines for High Cardinality Features (Part 4 of 4)
This is the fourth in a 4-part series where Anders Larson and Shea Parkes discuss predictive analytics with high cardinality features. In the prior episodes we focused on approaches to handling individual high cardinality features, but these methods did not explicitly address feature interactions. Factorization Machines can responsibly estimate all pairwise interactions, even when multiple high cardinality features are included. With a healthy selection of high cardinality features, a well tuned Factorization Machine can produce results that are more accurate than any other learning algorithm. -
Abandon the Spreadsheet and Go Digital
Lin Fangcheng argues that it is easy to digitalize by setting up new departments, but the real battle is to digitalize the incumbent departments that are predominantly spreadsheet-users. In order to reap the full potential of digitalization, we must abandon the spreadsheet and go digital. He discusses the reasons why the spreadsheet, hindered by its inherent design, has become a bottleneck for higher efficiency, and how to adopt low-code digital technology in a “together” mode. He further demonstrates that digitalization lays a solid foundation for artificial intelligence. -
Anders vs. Shea, Part 4: A Champion is Crowned
Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA, and Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, reveal the results of the competition and share some final thoughts on the 2021 Milliman Health Practice Hackathon. -
Anders vs. Shea, Part 2: Anders’ Story
Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA, and Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, are joined by Nick Vander Heyden to discuss the approach used by Anders’ team in the 2021 Milliman Health Practice Hackathon. -
Emerging Topics Community: Anders vs. Shea, Part 1: Setting the Stage
Shea Parkes, FSA, MAAA, and Anders Larson, FSA, MAAA, are are joined by the organizers of the 2021 Milliman Health Practice Hackathon: Riley Heckel, FSA, MAAA, Austin Barrington, FSA, MAAA, and Phil Ellenberg. -
Actuaries Can Excel® at Data Science (Pun Absolutely Intended)
We explore the use of mito, a Python package that allows users to use excel-like point-and-click interface with large datasets in Python. -
Hack-A-Thon
This is a historical account of the predictive analytics Hack-A-Thon sponsored by the SOA.
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Dive into insightful content. Gain practical knowledge. Explore the latest research and key information for future use. Discover the Emerging Topics Community, an online forum that focuses on three main topic areas–Modeling, Predictive Analytics and Futurism, and Technology.