Anxiety and Depression and the Impact on Mortality

Background and Purpose

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a focus on American’s mental health. A May 2023 Gallup study discusses the rising rates of depression with roughly 18% of Americans indicating currently having or being treated for the condition. To help actuaries and others in modeling future mortality, a thorough understanding of how anxiety and depression has evolved to this point is needed.

The purpose of this project is to create a resource that examines the progression of anxiety and depression in the U.S. and how it is influencing the U.S. mental health landscape, if any. The research will also identify the factors for the rise in the prevalence of anxiety and depression in the U.S. and the implications on mortality. In addition, the project should investigate the future potential trajectory of anxiety and depression in the U.S. and its impact on mortality, both for the general population and, if possible, the population covered by life insurance.

Research Objective

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOARI) is seeking researchers to study the factors fueling the increase in prevalence of anxiety and depression and how anxiety and depression is impacting the U.S. mental health landscape, and the consequences to mortality. Using this information, the researchers will develop possible scenarios and/or prediction about the future trajectory of anxiety and depression in the U.S. from a mortality perspective and societal implications.

The following are examples of proposed topics that may be addressed:

• Understanding the historical progression of anxiety and depression in the U.S. and how it is impacting the U.S. general population and the life insured population mortality, if possible. Identify and discuss factors influencing the progression of anxiety and depression and the impact on mortality such as the COVID-19 pandemic and isolation or provider shortages.
• Development of plausible scenarios or forecasts about the future path of anxiety and depression in the U.S., its influence on the U.S. mental health landscape and the impact on mortality.
• Associated financial and economic costs of anxiety and depression is also of interest. This could be measured in loss of productivity. An example might be lost wages due to illness, increased medical costs, lost future wages due to death, and other metric(s).
• Changing impact over time by different segments of the population including age, geography, and socioeconomic factors.
• Direct vs indirect impact of anxiety and depression on the U.S. mental health landscape.
• Compare and contrast the course of anxiety and depression in the U.S. and its impact on mortality to that of Canada. A comparison of the U.S. to other developed countries may also be included in the research.
• Impact on the insured population: how much role does it play in the poor mortality improvement at younger ages (if any).
• Impact of specific interventions (e.g., therapy, employer supported programs, anxiety and depression medications, and others).

Note that the list above is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be researched.

The researchers will summarize results of the study into a report suitable for publication on the SOA website.

Proposal Requirements

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

1. Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
   
   
2. An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
   
   
3. A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
   
   
4. Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
   
   Please note that as a policy, the SOARI generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.
   
   As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix)
   
   
5. A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The SOARI is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
   
   
6. Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.

Selection Process

The SOARI will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The POG is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the POG will make the final recommendation, subject to SOARI leadership approval. An SOARI staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-ML@soa.org.

Notification of Intent to submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by June 12, 2024 to Research-ML@soa.org.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to Research-ML@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than June 21, 2024. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end of July 2024.

Conditions

The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the SOARI and the researcher.

The SOARI reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The SOARI also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The SOARI plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).

The SOARI may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the SOARI in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.

The SOARI may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by SIARI, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.

Conflict of Interest

You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries or of SOARI.

Appendix

The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.

All Contracted Projects

This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.

Literature Reviews

This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.

Surveys

This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.