The U.S. Drug Abuse Epidemic and Mortality: Past, Present, and Future
Background and Purpose
Drug abuse has had a significant negative impact on American lives. More recently opioids have taken a central role. In the last few years, the abuse of opioids has had a significant adverse impact on mortality, especially, but not exclusively, among younger adults. To assist actuaries and others in modeling future mortality, a thorough understanding of how the U.S. drug epidemic progressed to the current point is needed.
The purpose of this project is to create a resource that examines the evolution and drivers of the drug epidemic, the role that various types of opioids and other drugs are playing in the epidemic that have affected the trajectory of the epidemic and its consequences for the mortality of both the general population and, if possible, the population covered by life insurance. The project should also assess the future course of the drug epidemic and its impact on mortality.
Research Objective
The Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC) is seeking researchers to study the drivers and impact of the drug abuse epidemic, other than marijuana, with a focus on opioids on mortality. Using this information, the researchers will develop possible scenarios and/or projections about the future trajectory of the U.S. drug epidemic from both a mortality and social impact perspective.
The following are examples of proposed topics that may be addressed as it impacts U.S. mortality:
- Understanding the historical drug epidemic in the U.S., how opioids have come to play a central role in the epidemic, and how it is impacting U.S. population and insured mortality.
- Drivers of the drug epidemic and how they have changed over time.
- Changing impact over time by different population segments, including gender, age, geography and socioeconomic factors.
- Impact of synthetic opioids inserted in other non-opioid drugs.
- Direct versus indirect impacts of the drug epidemic, such as on the rate of suicides, homicides and other causes of death.
- Compare and contrast the course of the U.S. drug epidemic and its impact on mortality to that of Canada. A comparison of the U.S. to other developed countries may also be included in the research.
- Impact on mortality on the insured population, including implications on applicant/policyholder behavior such as insurance purchases and lapses, and insured mortality consequences.
- Impact of specific interventions, e.g., Naloxone, on drug addiction and recovery and the mortality implications.
Note that the list above is not meant to be exhaustive, but merely examples of topics that may be researched.
The researchers will summarize results of the study in a report suitable for publication on the SOA website.
Proposal Requirements
To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:
- Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
- An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
- A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
- Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
Please note that as a policy, the SOARI generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.
As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix) - A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The SOARI is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
- Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.
Selection Process
The MLPSC will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The POG is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the POG will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOARI) leadership approval. An SOARI staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.
Questions
Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-ML@soa.org.
Notification of Intent to submit Proposal
If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by May 24, 2024 to Research-ML@soa.org.
Submission of Proposal
Please email your proposal to Research-ML@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than June 7, 2024. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end of June 2024.
Conditions
The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.
The Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.
The Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).
The Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the Institute in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.
The Institute may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by Institute, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.
Conflict of Interest
You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries or of Society of Actuaries Research Institute.
Appendix
The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.
All Contracted Projects
This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.
Literature Reviews
This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.
Surveys
This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.