Description: Modern actuarial work, being quite data intensive, provides many opportunities for actuaries to use the statistical skills that are part of their basic training. Furthermore, modern computing allows us to analyze vast quantities of data intensively, and each package will provide statistical 'answers' to any questions the actuary might ask of it.

Description: Renal disease is a very heterogenous medical condition whose end state is dialysis, a recurring cost intensive medical condition. Dialysis cost is one of the major medical cost drivers in USA. Insufficient and improper care management in the early stages of CKD (chronic kidney disease) leads to early incidence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) among CKD patients which not only leads to high medical costs, but also reflects poor health quality.

Description: Hear about some applications using quantile regression-derived individual and group claim distributions and how they may be used in various traditional health care modeling situations. The session will not focus on the technical use of quantile regression to obtain estimates of claim distributions, but more so is intended to focus on the uses of the distributions in actuarial modeling and the additive framework in assessing claims distributions. Presenters will show how actuaries can better assess risks by focusing on the individual- and group-specific claims distributions as opposed to traditional point-estimate-centric models.

Description: This project was developed by the Predictive Analytics Subgroup of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Individual Life Experience Committee (ILEC).

Description: Attend this webcast to learn more on how to navigate managing ESG principles in the new normal of a post-COVID world. Enhance your ESG insights in a post-pandemic landscape.

Description: Almost half of recent FDA approvals have been for orphan drugs. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. Orphan drugs are priced more than 30 times higher than non-orphan drugs, therefore their cost burden in aggregate has the potential to overwhelm the budgets of payers, especially that of smaller health plans. Hear how the cost impact analysis for smaller health plans require different considerations than for a larger health plan when modeling the impact of rare diseases.

Description: Modern Actuarial work, being quite data intensive, provides many opportunities for actuaries to use the statistical skills that are part of their basic training. Furthermore, modern computing allows us to analyze vast quantities of data intensively, and each package will provide statistical 'answers' to any questions the actuary might ask of it. However, in this particular field, it is often worth taking a step back, and ensuring that we recall and consider the warnings that come with each of the statistical procedures we might attempt to use. This will allow us to ensure that we guard ourselves against drawing inappropriate conclusions, which could come back to haunt us later.At the conclusion of the session, attendees will be able to avoid drawing inappropriate statistical conclusions, while doing their work. They will leave informed about the types of pitfalls that exist, and where those might come into play in actuarial work.

Description: Learn how modernization of data, models, and technology are influencing workflows. This webcast will address how workflows are changing in response to new regulatory requirements and the impacts the changes have on modeling and end-to-end future state operating models. Industry leading actuaries will discuss: How team collaboration can increase quality and speed of reporting to internal and external stakeholders How to strengthen controls and compliance frameworks across finance and actuarial departments How to modernize actuarial input/output for strategic analysis and insights How to attract and retain top talent by improving opportunities for actuaries There will also be dedicated time to ask questions of those who have made the transition.

Description: Artificial intelligence (AI) models have become increasingly popular in various industries, including finance. Such models can help lenders assess the risk of loan applicants, identify potential defaults and make better decisions about granting credit. However, the complexity of many machine-learning and, particularly, deep-learning models makes it difficult to understand how they arrive at their decisions. This lack of interpretability can be a significant problem in the legal and ethical realms, as it hinders transparency and accountability. Join us to learn interpretability techniques that are essential to address the challenges of using complex AI models in credit risk modeling. These techniques aim to provide a better understanding of how an AI model arrived at a particular decision or prediction. Techniques include surrogate models, which aim to provide a simpler model that approximates the behavior of the original model, and decision trees, which show the decision-making process in a more transparent way. However, applying interpretability techniques to AI models can be a challenging task. For example, some techniques can reduce the performance of the model, which can be unacceptable in applications where high accuracy is critical. Additionally, some techniques may only be effective for certain types of models or datasets, which limits their applicability. Despite these challenges, interpretability techniques are becoming increasingly important in the field of credit risk modeling. Financial regulators have recognized the importance of interpretability, and are starting to require financial institutions to use models that can be explained and validated. In addition, interpretability techniques can be used to improve the performance of credit risk models. By understanding how a model makes decisions, it is possible to identify areas where the model can be improved or where additional data may be needed.

Description: Regression to the mean (RTTM) is inflating your health care intervention evaluations if you are not carefully managing it's omnipresent and significant impact RTTM is the statistical phenomenon which arises when comparing sequential data points when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, and states that with no other intervention, future observations will be closer to the average. Members who had high costs last year will, on average, have lower costs this year, even in the absence of any intervention or clinical program, simply by 'regressing' to the mean. This means that if your clinical programs are simply targeting members who had adverse medical experience last year, you’re targeting the wrong people. And if your savings methodologies are simply last year’s costs minus this year’s costs, the savings are inflated. By attending this session, you will be able to identify situations where RTTM will be a significant factor, how to eliminate it's impact when performing retrospective evaluations, how to identify prospects for clinical intervention with RTTM in mind, and more.