Description: In preparing claims reserves in the annual statement, health insurers and their opining actuaries will generally include a provision for adverse deviation (PAD) in their reserved amount in order to satisfy language in both in the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) Health Annual Statement Instructions and in Actuarial Standards of Practice. This article explores the total level of PAD (both implicit and explicit margin combined) included in the reported claims reserves by examining NAIC filing data from 2016 through 2022.

Description: Presents a step-by-step methodology for calculating confidence intervals for IBNR estimates derived using the Averaqe PMPM method. It is a companion article to the January 2023 Health Watch article presenting the Average PMPM method for generating point estimates of IBNR with zero claims runout.