With a Little Help from My Friends

By Doug Norris

Health Watch, October 2021

COVID-19 has shaped our careers as health professionals for the past two years. The pandemic has influenced every aspect of our work (and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future), and as the industry’s leading risk experts, we have had the opportunity to showcase our skills. We have no real historical analogues to work with, at least in the managed care era; we all know the common joke that being an actuary is akin to driving down the road and steering by way of the rearview mirror. In this analogy, the mirror cracked, fogged up, and fell off the car about 10 miles ago.

However, we soldier on because we must. Actuaries always shine when combining data-driven understanding with qualitative research and thought leadership, and thanks partially to a series of rigorous credential-defining challenges, we’ve especially learned how to learn. We pick up a little epidemiology, some behavioral economics, and some differential equations; we find the various places promulgating COVID-19 data (and the strengths and weaknesses of each), and we combine what we know into actionable insights.

These past two years have been the most challenging of my professional career, and I’m certainly not unique in this regard. Fortunately, I’ve benefited from a little help from my friends in the actuarial community—no one sticks together like actuaries. Over the years, the Health Section has worked to provide value to its members across three dimensions: compelling continuing education opportunities, innovative research and insights, and peer-to-peer networking opportunities. The pandemic presents a great case study; I’ve been exceptionally proud of the Section’s work over these past two years to ensure quality and consistency from the profession.

• In March 2020, we knew very little about COVID-19 specifically, but our industry did have pandemic experience. We gathered as many as we could for a “live” version of our podcast series to share what data were available, what we could rely on from the past and what key considerations we should be thinking of as actuaries.
• Stemming from the need to set appropriate reserves but quickly expanding beyond those boundaries, we started a biweekly pandemic roundtable discussion in April 2020 where people could bring their expertise and questions to the conversation. Many of these meetings involved open brainstorming—what did people need to do their jobs well, and how could we provide it?
• As summer 2020 dawned, we developed a public-use tool to estimate future health care costs. At the time (and still), many were wondering not only about the cost burden of pandemic-related hospitalizations, but also about the impact of deferred and forgone care; there were so many moving parts that it was hard to get a handle on the conclusion. A large number of actuaries took part here, joining together different data sets and backgrounds.
• July 2020 saw the COVID-19 Virtual Symposium, featuring a full day of cutting-edge commentary across two different tracks (life and health). Health service delivery, asset liabilities, deferred care, what we saw in the data so far, and what was coming down the road were all covered, and we had some really cool speakers donate their time and energy to the cause.
• As the pandemic continued to grow and evolve, we kept members informed on topics both quantitative and qualitative with multiple podcasts and webinars, and we even tried to attack the pandemic on the social media front with a live Twitter chat.
• The Health Meetings and Annual Meetings have offered an inspiring breadth of COVID-19 topics, and (although it has been frustrating not to meet with you all in person) the virtual format has allowed us to welcome many who would otherwise be unable to participate.
• We know that the pandemic is far from over (as much as we’d like it to be otherwise). We have established a long-term COVID-19 strategic initiative, and we are exploring multiple research areas within those boundaries.

I tried to determine the number of unique volunteers involved in this herculean effort (given the current situation, it sometimes feels Sisyphean instead); my list currently has more than 250 names, and I’m sure I’m missing some of you. Without the combined energy of this group, there’s no way that we would have been prepared to do daily battle, helping our stakeholders manage this unprecedented risk.

It’s been important to have a strong support network during these unprecedented times, and I’m especially grateful for my colleagues on the Health Section Council these past two years. In particular, I would like to give thanks to Joan Barrett (whose leadership I have relied upon for many years and will undoubtedly continue to call upon down the road), Deana Bell, Casey Hammer, and Kelsey Stevens. You have inspired me, you have challenged me to be my best, and you have raised the Section to new heights.

It’s truly an exciting time to be a health actuary, and I’m grateful to be part of a Section with so many diverse interests and skills. COVID-19 research will continue to be a Health Section priority over the coming year; “long COVID” and behavioral health impact are just two of the areas where we will focus resources. The pandemic is just one of our efforts: health costs continue to rise, we have an increasing volume of data to manage, we are working with increasingly complex medical settings and attempting to balance cost with patient health and satisfaction, while risk management and patient attribution continue to challenge us.

My main goal as chairperson is to have more volunteer involvement than ever before; I can guarantee that the demand will be there, and the supply is where you come in. We will continue to focus on providing research insights, useful and entertaining continuing education and networking opportunities, but we need your help. What health challenges do you find most inspiring and want to take on? Please reach out to me or to any member of your Health Section Council, and we will connect your interest with an opportunity. I’m also happy to talk with you about all of our activities (singularly or collectively), including, but not limited to, the Health Actuarial Toolkit, digital health, social determinants of health care, risk modeling, chronic disease burden, alternative provider payment models, and how we can help health actuaries better present complex health topics to industry stakeholders. Drop me a line!

Doug Norris, FSA, MAAA, PhD, is the incoming chair of the Health Section Council and a principal with Milliman, Inc. He can be reached at doug.norris@milliman.com or on Twitter at @NorrisDoug.