2017 Living to 100 Monograph
Table of Contents by Session
January 4-6, 2017
Orlando, Fla.
The Living to 100 monograph is composed of the papers, panel discussions and keynote sessions presented at the symposium.
Presentations
Podcasts
Forewords
by the Outgoing and Incoming Committee Chairs, Timothy F. Harris and Jean-Marc Fix
General Session I: Featured Presentation: How to Die Young at a Very Old Age
Nir Barzilai, M.D.
Session 1A: Data Sources and Analysis
Compiling a Very Large Sample of Centenarian Pedigrees to Ascertain Patterns of Inheritance and a Familial Propensity for Longevity Score
Lisa Nussbaum, Giacomo Nebbia, Annie Helmkamp, Stacy Andersen, Thomas Perls, and Paola Sebastiani
Regional Mortality in the United States at Ages 80 and Older: An Analysis of Direct Estimates over Period 1959-2011
Kirill Andreev, Danan Gu and Matthew Dupre
Discussant Comments: Thomas P. Edwalds
Informal Discussion Transcript
Session 1B: Late Life Mortality Curves
Mortality Trajectories at Exceptionally High Ages: A Study of Supercentenarians
Natalia S. Gavrilova, Leonid A. Gavrilov and Vyacheslav N. Krut'ko
Historical Evolution of Old-Age Mortality and New Approaches to Mortality Forecasting
Leonid A. Gavrilov, Natalia S. Gavrilova and Vyacheslav N. Krut'ko
Where is the Level of the Mortality Plateau?
Roland Rau, Marcus Ebeling, Frederik Peters, Christina Bohk-Ewald, and Trifon I. Missov
Discussant Comments: Jean-Marie Robine
Informal Discussion Transcript
Session 1C: Panel: Impact of Aging: What are the Biggest Current Policy Challenges Emerging from the UK/US/Canada as a Result of Aging?
Moderator: Anna M. Rappaport
Panelists: Robert L. Brown, John Cutler and David Sinclair
Session 2A: Panel: Drivers of Future Mortality
Moderator: Allen M. Klein
Panelists: Allen M. Klein, Phillip Smalley and Laurie M. Orlov
Session 2B: Older Age Mortality Trends
Extreme Value Analysis of Mortality at the Oldest Ages: A Case Study Based on Individual Ages at Death
Samuel Gbari, Michel Poulain, Luc Dal, and Michel Denuit
Improvement in Late-Life Mortality and Its Impact on the Increase in the Number of Centenarians in Quebec (Canada)
Mélissa Beaudry-Godin, Robert Bourbeau and Bertrand Desjardins
Accuracy of Official High-Age Population Estimates, In England and Wales: An Evaluation
Presenter: Adrian Gallop
Discussant Comments: Jean-Marc Fix
Informal Discussion Transcript
Session 2C: Panel: Impact of Aging: What Can Individuals and the Private Sector Do to Address the Challenges Resulting from Aging?
Moderator: Bob Powell
Panelists: Susana Harding, Cindy Hounsell and David Sinclair
General Session II: Insights into Successful Aging
Moderator: Steven G. Vernon
Panelists: Liz Davidson, Cynthia Hutchins and Jim Toole
General Session III: Featured Presentation: Suppressing Aging and Extending Longevity: Will the Twain Meet?
Presenter: Judith Campisi, Ph.D.
Session 3A: Mortality Inequality: Impact of Socioeconomic Factors
Mortality Projections with Explicit Consideration of Behavioral Factors
Sam Gutterman
Causal Mortality by Socioeconomic Circumstances: A Model to Assess the Impact of Policy Options on Inequalities in Life Expectancy
Daniel H. Alai, Séverine Arnold, Madhavi Bajekal, and Andr é s M. Villegas
Discussant Comments: S. Jay Olshansky
Informal Discussion Transcript
Session 3B: Comparing Mortality of Different Groups
Longevity Greeks: What Should Insurers and Capital Market Investors Know About?
Kenneth Q. Zhou and Johnny S.-H. Li
Using Life Table Techniques to Model Mortality Rates for Small Populations
Jack C. Yue and Hsin Chung Wang
A Comprehensive Analysis of the Patterns of Worldwide Mortality Evolution
Martin Genz
Discussant Comments: Kai Kaufhold
Informal Discussion Transcript
Session 3C: Panel: Challenges and Strategies for Financing an Increasingly Long Life
Moderator: David G. Boettcher
Panelists: Vickie Bajtelsmit, David G. Boettcher, Liz Davidson, and Benoit G. Miclette
Session 4A: Longevity in the Public Eye
Health Technology, Health Care Cost, Longevity and Retirement Security: A Dynamic Upward Spiral and Challenge to Future Policy
Daniel W. Bailey
Financial Shocks, Unexpected Expenses of and Financial Experiences of Older Americans
Anna M. Rappaport
Discussant Comments: Sam Gutterman
Informal Discussion Transcript
Session 4B: Mortality Projections
Grouped Multivariate and Functional Time Series Forecasting: An Application to Annuity Pricing
Han Lin Shang and Steven Haberman
Mortality Improvement Rates: Modelling and Parameter Uncertainty
Andrew Hunt and Andr é s M. Villegas
On the Heterogenity of Human Population as Reflected by the Mortality Dynamics
Séverine Arnold
Discussant Comments: W. Ward Kingkade
Informal Discussion Transcript
Session 4C: Panel: Innovative Business Solutions to Respond to an Aging Society
Moderator: Timothy F. Harris
Panelists: Lisa D’Ambrosio and Jodi Olshevski
General Session IV: Panel: Featured Presentation: Mortality Projection from a Social Security Panel
Moderator: Sam Gutterman
Panelists: Stephen C. Goss, Adrian Gallop, Jean-Claude Menard, Annie St-Jacques, and Mark Bye
General Session V: The Nitty Gritty of Human Mortality Database
Moderator: R. Dale Hall
Panelist: Magali Barbieri
Session 5A: SOA Mortality and Longevity Research
Moderator: R. Dale Hall
Panelists: R. Dale Hall, Cynthia MacDonald and Andrew J. Peterson
Session 5B: What is Different Today for Post-Retirement Financial Planning?
Moderator: Jean-Marc Fix
Presenters: Tamara Burden
Session 6A: Mortality Improvement Approaches
Moderator: Jean-Marc Fix
Presenters: Laurence Pinzur
Session 6B: The Changing Face of Eldercare
Moderator: Anna M. Rappaport
Presenter: Phyllis Mitzen
General Session VI: Senior Citizen in 2050
Moderator: Jean-Marc Fix
Panelists: S. Jay Olshansky, Neil Charness, Thomas Getzen, Robert Bourbeau, and Philip Smalley