Catastrophe & Climate

Research

This page contains emerging research topics in risk management in a variety of areas. As new reports and studies on risk management become available, you’ll find them listed below. Most reports are in PDF format. 

Climate
U.S. Population

Climate

In this category of risk management studies and reports, you’ll find research that explores how climate risk may affect the finance and insurance industries.

• Compound Weather Extreme Events and their Impacts
  November 2024
  Learn how multiple climate hazards interact to impact society and the environment.
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• Availability, Affordability, and Adequacy of Insurance in Areas Impacted by Climate-related Risks
  October 2024
  Review the results of an expert panel discussion on climate change's impact on insurance.
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• Quarterly Global Warming Report
  October 2024
  This report covers the third quarter, reflecting temperature data through the end of September 2024. The data source for this report is ERA5, produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
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• Climate Change Key Adverse Effects – Essay Collection
  October 2024
  Explore the Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Health Risks Essay Collection.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes – Hurricane Helene – September 2024
• October 2024
• Hurricane Helene, a catastrophic Category 4 storm, struck Florida on September 26th, 2024, causing unprecedented rainfall, severe flooding, billions in economic losses, and hundreds of deaths, raising critical questions about the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events due to climate change.
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• Implications for Actuaries from the ISSB and Global Climate-related Financial Disclosure Standards
  August 2024
  This paper discusses the new International Sustainability Standards Board (“ISSB”) climate and sustainability disclosure standards, focusing on the climate-related financial disclosure requirements.
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• Tipping Points in Climate-Related Insurance Modeling
  August 2024
  Learn more about a methodology to identify climate regime shifts in different climate scenarios that could represent a “new normal” for insurers.
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• Growing Life and Health Insurance Industry Risks from Catastrophic Events
• August 2024
  On May 1, 2024, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute gathered a panel of experts to discuss the growing risks from catastrophic events in the life and health insurance industry and how to model these risks. The panel members were from actuarial, catastrophe risk modeling, and risk management backgrounds. The outcomes of this panel discussion form the basis of this report.
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• Risks Emerging from AI Widespread Use - Essay Collection
• August 2024
  The Society of Actuaries Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee issued a call for essays to gather Risks Emerging from Artificial Intelligence Widespread Use. The purpose was to gather potentially catastrophic uses of artificial intelligence (AI) as submitted by essay authors with the goal to initiate discussion regarding risks and impact of AI and set the stage for future research.
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• United States Earthquake Insurance Overview: Risk and Coverages by Region with a Comparison to Canada and Puerto Rico
• August 2024
  This report provides a comprehensive guide for actuaries, insurance companies and regulators to understand the scope and challenges of earthquake risk and insurance in the U.S. It also looks at Canada and Puerto Rico due to their proximity.
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• Quarterly Global Warming Report
• July 2024
• This report covers the second quarter, reflecting temperature data through the end of June 2024. The data source for this report is ERA5, produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series: Hurricane Beryl
  June 2024
  Review the key findings on the first major Atlantic hurricane of the 2024 season.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes: Droughts Around the World in Early 2024
  June 2024
• The latest report in the Actuarial Weather Extremes series looks at areas around the globe of extreme drought and also views them in relation to drought in the U.S. and Canada. This report is published along with a supplement Excel tool for analyzing the GHCN (Global Historical Climatology Network) Daily Weather Dataset. Read the report and download the supplement Excel tool.
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• Excessive Heat Research Collection
• June 2024
• Explore this collection of articles, essays and research reports that examine the impacts of excessive heat from an actuarial perspective.
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• Post-wildfire Drinking Water Crisis
• March 2024
• Learn more about how wildfires can cause widespread drinking water system contamination.
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• Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Newsletter
• February 2024
• The February Edition has published! Read the latest newsletter which highlights the activities of the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program along with featured research projects, recent news items, book recommendations and more!
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series: California Precipitation Feb 3-7 2024
  February 2024
  “Between February 3rd and February 7th, 2024, a series of atmospheric rivers brought flash floods, mudslides and intense hurricane-like wind gusts to the state of California. The extreme weather event resulted in a state of emergency being proclaimed in various Southern California counties including Los Angeles.” This report in the SOA Research Institute Actuarial Weather Extremes series analyzes this extreme precipitation event in an historical context.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series: 2023 Was the Hottest Year on Record
  January 2024
  According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, for the Earth as a whole, 2023 was the hottest on record. Review the results of the latest study in this series.
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• Essay on Navigating the Storm: The Actuarial Role in Addressing Severe Thunderstorm Risks
  December 2023
  The Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program is pleased to release the following essay exploring the Actuarial Role in addressing Severe Thunderstorm Risks.
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• Expert Panel on the Impact of Wildfires on U.S. Health and Life Insurers
  December 2023
  The Mortality and Longevity and Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Programs are pleased to make available a report summarizing an expert panel brought together to discuss the impact of wildfires on U.S. health and life insurers.
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• The Impact of Climate Change Risk on Retirement - Essay Collection
  November 2023
  The Society of Actuaries Research Institute Aging and Retirement and Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Programs are pleased to present this collection of essays that explores the impact of climate risk on retirement from authors with varying perspectives.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series: Five Consecutive Months of Record-High Global Temperatures
• November 2023
• According to data produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the average worldwide temperature exceeded the prior record-high for each of the last five months, from June 2023 through October 2023. Review the results of the latest study in this series.
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• Analysis of U.S. Insurance Industry Climate Risk Financial Disclosures for Reporting Year 2021
• October 2023
• This report presents an analysis of the NAIC climate risk disclosures for reporting year 2021. The 2021 disclosures were the most recently available data at the time this analysis was conducted (in June and July of 2023).
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• Climate Change Contributions to Key Adverse Effects from Excessive Heat
  August 2023
  The SOA Research Institute’s Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program is presenting the first essay ("It's Hot Outside!") in a series of articles and essays which will focus on the key adverse effects from excessive heat.
  
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series: Record-Setting Heat Across Three Continents in July 2023
• August 2023
• July 2023 was the hottest July on record according to data produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Review the results of the latest study in this series.
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• Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Newsletter
• August 2023
• August edition has published! This newsletter highlights the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program along with featured research projects, recent news items, authored content recommendations and related research from other organizations.
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• Essays on Sustainability and Sustainable Development Goals
  July 2023
  The Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program is pleased to release two essays addressing sustainability and sustainable development goals.
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• Essay on Current and Potential Uses for the Actuaries Climate Index
  July 2023
  The Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program is pleased to release an essay addressing current and potential uses for the Actuaries Climate Index.
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• Catastrophic Cyber Risk: An Expert Panel Discussion Part 4
  June 2023
  This report focuses on various aspects related to catastrophic cyber risks and the role of the cyber insurance sector and its stakeholders in mitigating both pre-incident and post-incident challenges. It explores actions that should be taken to address these risks and the role of government in supporting the cyber insurance sector. The thresholds for intervention and the impacts of government action on the sector are also key topics. Additionally, the report explores evolution of cyber insurance to better respond to catastrophic cyber risk events and addresses key takeaways for actuaries and insurers.
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• Catastrophic Cyber Risk: An Expert Panel Discussion Part 3
• May 2023
• This report is the third deliverable in a series of four expert panel discussions on catastrophic cyber incidents.  The expert panel discussion answered several research questions about the biggest risks and challenges for the insurance sector to respond to such developing cyber incidents, the course of action of the insurance industry, and how insurance companies could react.  The conclusions drawn from the conversations reveal information about the impact of the incidents and challenges for the insurance industry.

• Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Newsletter
• April 2023
• This newsletter highlights the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program along with featured research projects, recent news items, authored content recommendations and related research from other organizations.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes:  Fort Lauderdale, FL Precipitation April 12-13, 2023
• April 2023
• On April 12-13, Fort Lauderdale, Florida was hit by a slow-moving storm system that led to prolonged periods of very heavy rainfall.  This reports’ analysis examines the historical context of this record rainfall and attempts to estimate the probability distribution of the annual maximum of daily precipitation observations in Fort Lauderdale.
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• ESG for the Insurance and Pension Industry in Asia Pacific Markets
• April 2023
• ESG is the abbreviation of Environmental, Social and Governance, which has become an increasingly popular concept in the capital markets across the globe. Although definitions on ESG vary slightly according to different sources, the general understandings are similar. Environmental refers to issues related to the planet, such as climate change mitigation and biodiversity protection; Social focuses on issues around societal problems, such as gender inequality; Governance puts emphasis on building and maintaining a sound corporate governance system.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, Mississippi Tornadoes: March 24, 2023
• March 2023
• This report highlights the extreme and tragic tornado activity and precipitation in Mississippi on Mar 24, 2023 and examines the historical frequency of violent tornadoes in March in both Mississippi and the U.S. at large. The report further discusses considerations when fitting a statistical distribution to these observations, attempting to model the behavior of the variable EF-4 Tornadoes.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes: Snowfall and Precipitation Analysis for Nov 2022 to Feb 2023
• March 2023
• During the period from November 2022 through February 2023, the United States (U.S.) experienced numerous major winter storms, affecting much of the Midwest and Northeast. In California and Nevada, a series of atmospheric rivers in late December and January led to unusually heavy rainfall and, in some locations, heavy snowfall. This analysis examines precipitation and snowfall totals across the entire November-to-February period which, in this report, we refer to as the “2022/2023 winter season”. Data for this period was ranked against data from prior winters, focusing solely on weather stations with at least 50 years of historical data. The results were plotted on maps, revealing that much of the Western U.S. and parts of the Midwest experienced relatively high snowfall and/or precipitation across winter 2022/2023, with some locations experiencing record highs. Conversely, much of the mid-Atlantic and the Southeast experienced relatively low precipitation or snowfall, with some locations experiencing record lows.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes: Precipitation Analysis Using Extreme Value Theory
  March 2023
• This paper sets out to apply the core concepts of Extreme Value Theory to the precipitation history of Lambert Airport in St. Louis, Missouri (STL). In July 2022, 8.6 inches of rain was recorded in one day, breaking the previous record of 5.6 inches. Previously, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) reported on this extreme precipitation. The analysis described in this paper can easily be applied to other time series: either a different station or a different weather variable, such as temperature. By following the methodology in the paper and working through the accompanying workbook, any actuary can begin analysis of extreme weather observations.
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• Catastrophic Cyber Risk: An Expert Panel Discussion Part 2
  March 2023
• With the growing threat of cyber incidents, organizations and governments are rightfully concerned and there is a need to understand and provide greater context around the topic of catastrophic cyber risk, which has implications for insurance companies, reinsurers, regulators, consumers, and society.
• This report is the second output of a series of four multi-disciplinary panel discussions that employs red teaming techniques to gather insights from a diverse set of experts regarding evolving catastrophic cyber risks and how to plan ahead, mitigate, and respond to them.
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• Climate Risk Assessment and Scenario Analysis
  March 2023
  There is value in a framework that allows a smooth transition from a qualitative assessment to a quantitative analysis as entities mature in their understanding of climate risk. In this report, a case study on climate change impact on home prices is used to illustrate a Bayesian network iterative approach to building a model for scenario analysis.
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• Climate Change and Investments: Making the Process Transparent
  February 2023
  This report will explore metrics and assessment tools used by insurance companies and asset management firms in the U.S. to measure the climate risk exposures in their investment portfolios and see how they disclose the results. In addition, it will explore how companies may be able to use similar climate risk assessment tools in Asset-Liability Management and Risk Management.
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• Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Newsletter
  January 2023
  This newsletter highlights the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program along with featured research projects, recent news items, authored content recommendations and related research from other organizations.
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• Catastrophic Cyber Risk: An Expert Panel Discussion Part 1
  January 2023

  With the growing threat of cyber incidents, organizations and governments are rightfully concerned and there is a need to understand and provide greater context around the topic of catastrophic cyber risk, which has implications for insurance companies, reinsurers, regulators, consumers, and society.

  Taking a multi-disciplinary, holistic approach to catastrophic cyber risk, an expert panel discussion was conducted featuring a strong and diverse conversation on catastrophic cyber risk. This report sets the scene and frames catastrophic cyber risk and is the first of four expert panel discussions and reports in this series.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, Salinas River California Streamflow: January 2023
  January 2023
  This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in a historical context. The most recent report examines the impact of record rainfall on river and stream discharge levels through California in January 2023 and focuses on historical observations of the Salinas River, and discusses considerations for actuarial modeling and the selection of statistical distributions.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, California Precipitation: December 30-31, 2022
  January 2023
  This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. The most recent report covers the extreme precipitation in California in the last days of 2022, views it within an historical context, and discusses considerations for actuarial modeling and distribution fit.
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• Flood Risk Management and Adaptation Under Sea Level Rise Uncertainty
  December 2022
  This study presents a comprehensive approach of real option analysis to climate adaptation policies aiming to mitigate flood risk. The framework focuses on pricing catastrophic risk in coastal regions, allowing for economic growth and uncertainty in the mean sea level rise. The framework also provides insights into the optimal investment timing, both for single investment projects and for optimal adaptation pathways, when multiple projects are feasible.
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• A Practical Guide for Working with Weather Datasets
  December 2022
  This series of papers is intended to serve as a practical guide for actuaries and researchers who wish to analyze weather datasets. The first paper (released in November 2022) provides an overview of the main types of weather datasets and the second paper (released in December 2022) describes techniques for analyzing large weather datasets using a standard personal computer. Upcoming papers (to be released in 2023) will provide an overview of various weather datasets and will be accompanied by open-source computer programs for analyzing the data.
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• Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Newsletter
  October 2022
  This newsletter highlights the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program along with featured research projects, recent news items, authored content recommendations and related research from other organizations.
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• The Impact of Disaster Events on Investments - Contagion Channels Perspective
  October 2022
  The Society of Actuaries’ Committee on Finance Research is pleased to make available a research report covering the extent to which investment sectors have been contagiously affected by major disasters.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series Hurricane Ian 2022: October 3 Follow-Up
  October 2022
  This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. As noted in the SOA Research Institute report published on 9/30/2022, Hurricane Ian caused tornadoes, significant rainfall and flooding, and record-breaking tide levels in Florida. This report provides a more focused, detailed look at the extreme observations and historical significance of some of the observed perils.
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• A Hydro-EVT Approach to Flood Insurance Pricing
  September
  The research provides a modeling framework for assessing the inundation risk of properties and their expected flood damages, thereby laying a foundation for flood insurance pricing. The researchers studied over 50 years of claims data from the National Flood Insurance Program with 2.5 million records and identified property characteristics that predict flood damages for inundated properties. The development of a private flood insurance market benefits from insurers’ ability to better understand and price flood risk. This research takes a closer look at flood risk modeling and flood insurance pricing.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, Hurricane Ian: September 26-29, 2022
  September 2022
  This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. The most recent report covers the tremendous scale of Hurricane Ian as it hit Florida and the geographic range of the perils associated with the hurricane.
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• Climate, Weather, and Environmental Sources for Actuaries, 2022 Update
  September
  This report was developed by the CESRC as an update of the report Rob Erhardt prepared in 2016 that compiled a collection of sources that deal with what scientists know and what actuaries could do. Sources have been chosen with practicing actuaries and the public in mind. In the original report, nearly all governmental sources come from the United States. In the update an attempt was made to include sources from actuarial bodies and regulators worldwide. Please let us know if you have a source we did not include as it is anticipated that the SOA will continue to update a list of sources for these topics in the future.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, Heavy U.S. Precipitation: July 26-29, 2022
  Aug 2022
  This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. The most recent report covers the extreme precipitation event that hit St. Louis, Missouri and Central and Eastern Kentucky.
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• Actuarial Weather Extremes Series, Southern Europe Heatwave: July 2022
  Aug 2022
  This report series identifies and examines weather extremes in North America and beyond. Using data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), NOAA Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN), United States Geological Survey (USGS), and United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) among others; the reports identify and summarize unusual or extreme single-day or multi-day weather events which are significant in an historical context. The most recent report covers the record-breaking heat wave that has baked several countries across Europe.
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• Climate Impact on Tick-Borne Illnesses
  July 2022
  The SOA Research Institute Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program released a report that explores the shifting geography of Lyme Disease in the U.S. and beyond and some of the potential determinants of its spread. Lyme Disease is a well-known disease particularly in the eastern U.S., and it is also prevalent in other geographies. This report researches the complex relationship between climate variables and the spread of Lyme Disease in the United States.
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• Climate Risk Analysis for Life and Health Insurance Companies
  June 2022
  On March 31, 2022, the SOA Research Institute assembled an expert panel to discuss key considerations related to climate risk analysis applied to life and health insurance companies. The panelists were selected to represent a wide and diverse array of opinions, and were encouraged to contribute from their own, individual perspective working in areas such as insurance, reinsurance, state regulation, consultancy, meteorology, and climate finance. A summary of the main discussion points is presented in this report.
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• TCFD Best Practices
  February 2022
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute commissioned a study to understand how insurers are responding to the framework used for climate disclosure practices, attempting to identify current practice and best and emerging practice. Used by firms to ensure they manage climate risk appropriately, the framework from the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) focuses on disclosure of governance, risk management, strategy, and metrics.
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• Health and Hurricanes, Studying Disparate Health Impact of Extreme Climate Events, 2017-2020
  January 2022
  In this Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute report, authored by consultants from Milliman, Inc. (Milliman) we aim to study the effects of hurricanes on human health: whether there is a relationship between hurricanes and the observed prevalence of healthcare utilization or certain health conditions among the affected population, whether this relationship can be observed through a healthcare utilization dataset, and whether there is an interaction between this observation and metrics of socioeconomic vulnerability.
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• Environmental Risk Series
  January 2022
  This report series explores various aspects of environmental risk.
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• From 9/11 to COVID-19: The Unthinkables Call for Essays
  December 2021
  Review the winning essays from the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA).
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• Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Inland Flood Risk by Mid Century
  November 2021
  This report examines how inland flood risk and loss may change across the U.S. in the future because of climate change. The AIR Inland Flood Model for the U.S. and the AIR Hurricane Model for the U.S. were used to evaluate how changes in flooding will impact insurable losses in the future.
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• Potential Impacts of Climate Change on U.S. Wildfire Risk by Mid Century
  September 2021
  This report provides results from a recently conducted study using the AIR Wildfire Model for the United States and available climate and climate change information to estimate how climate change may influence wildfire losses to U.S. property by mid-century. The climate change conditioned catalogs were used to evaluate climate change impacts (relative change in losses) to the AIR Worldwide US Industry Exposure Database, with all factors other than area burned held constant.
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• Projected Changes in Insurability and Affordability of Insurance Coverages due to Climate Change
  September 2021
  The Society of Actuaries Catastrophe/Climate Strategic Research Program engaged Risk & Regulatory Consulting LLC (RRC) to conduct research on the projected changes in insurability and affordability of insurance coverages due to climate change. This report summarizes research results. Information regarding RRC can be found on their website at www.riskreg.com.
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• Determining the Role of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Human Health Outcomes: A Case Study on Heat Related Illness Attribution
  February 2021
  

  This report is targeted to actuaries that are interested in identifying the adverse human health outcomes resulting from anthropogenic climate change. As the primary focus of actuarial research is to promote human health and minimize the preventable economic burden, this document also provides recommendations to mitigate against excess heat related illness (HRI) due to extreme heat.
  
  

• COVID-19 Visualizations of Interest to Actuaries
  November 2020
  The SOA Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committee has sponsored these visualizations exploring the correlation between the COVID-19 pandemic and a theme of choice of the individual contributing authors.
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• Social Discounting - Application to the Risk Management of Climate Change
• September 2020
• A cost-benefit analysis plays a vital role in important social decision-making. The application of discount rates plays a crucial role in the quantitative portion of this analysis, especially when dealing with issues involving costs and benefits over prolonged periods. The objective of this paper is to discuss the factors that affect and should be considered in the development of social discount rates.
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• The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)
  August 2020
  This paper has been published by the Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Program of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and is intended to be a part of ongoing education for actuaries on the topic of climate risks.

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• A Tool for Extracting Subsets of Data from GHCN Daily Dataset
  August 2020
  This Excel/VBA tool can extract temperature, precipitation and snowfall data from the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) daily weather dataset, and run tabulations on the extracted data.

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• Residential Flood Risk in the United States: Quantifying Flood Losses, Mortgage Risk and Sea Level Rise
  May 2020
  This report evaluates the impact and evolution of societal risk management due to projected future changes in frequency, severity, and variety of weather-related catastrophes.
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• Trends in Normalized Weather-Related Property Losses in the United States: 1960–2018
• May 2020
• This report uses the Spatial Hazards Events and Losses Database for the United States (SHELDUS) to examine trends in normalized weather-related property losses from 1960 to the present. “Normalized” losses reflect an adjustment to account for the growth of exposure between the year of each loss and 2018. Exposure growth was estimated using county-level census data on housing units and state-level data on housing prices.
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• International Catastrophe Pooling for Extreme Weather
  October 2019
  This research studies catastrophe insurance pools covering losses caused by extreme weather events.
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• 2018 Environmental Sustainability Essays
• May 2019
• The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) Climate & Environmental Sustainability Research Committee is pleased to present this essay collection, which focuses on unknown knowns: where we have data but the future looks different from the past.
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• Modeling, Measuring, and Pricing the Flood Risk 
  January 2019  
  This research will educate the actuarial community about the various shades of the flood risk, as well as about the state of the art in quantitative flood risk modeling.
  
  
• Incorporation of Flood and Other Catastrophe Model Results into Pricing and Underwriting
  July 2018 
  This research report on the incorporation of flood and other catastrophe model results into pricing and underwriting is prepared by the authors for the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, the Society of Actuaries, and the Casualty Actuarial Society.
  
  
• 2017 Environmental Sustainability Essays
  July 2018
  The Society of Actuaries’ (SOA) Climate & Environmental Sustainability Research Committee is pleased to present this essay collection, which shows how actuaries incorporate the financial risks of environmental sustainability into their work for their employers or clients.
  
  
• How Do They Know and What Could We Do? The Science of 21st Century Climate Projections and Opportunities for Actuaries
  May 2018
  This white paper provides actuaries with the necessary background and foundational scientific knowledge to understand global climate change and climate model projections for the 21st century.
  
  
• Predictive Modeling of Surface Temperature Extremes over North America with Actuarial Applications in View
  April 2018
  This project obtains ensemble simulations of surface atmospheric temperature over North America.
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• Managing Climate and Carbon Risk in Investment Portfolios
  February 2018
  This report focuses on analyzing and managing climate change and carbon risk in the equity investment portfolios of insurance company and pension fund assets.
  
  
• Climate, Weather, and Environmental Sources for Actuaries
  April 2017
  This report is a collection of sources that deal with the questions of how do scientists know, and what could actuaries do regarding climate change, environmental risks, and weather.
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• Climate Sources for Actuaries
  April 2017
  This research will initiate the development of a repository of information regarding existing climate and environmental sustainability research of interest to actuaries.
  
  
• Improving Disaster Financing
  February 2017
  At a November 2016 workshop, “Improving Disaster Financing: Evaluating Policy Interventions in Disaster Insurance Markets,” the SOA sponsored new papers presented by world-renowned scholars on six governmental disaster insurance programs.
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• Actuaries Climate Index
  Updated Quarterly
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• Determining the Impact of Climate Change on Insurance Risk and the Global Community Phase 1: Key Climate Indicators
  November 2012

U.S. Population

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute has sponsored a program of research that utilizes U.S. Population Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to produce studies, tools and articles that may be of interest to its members and the public. See the list below for the publications released by the SOA Research Institute.

• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2022
  October 2024
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by sex and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2022.
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• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2021
  August 2023
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by sex and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2021.
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• U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2021 Experience
  February 2023
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2021 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2020.
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• 2021 Provisional U.S. Population Mortality Key Observations
  October 2022
  In this report, we consider high-level results from provisional mortality data released from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for 2021, including looking at changes by sex and age group. There are multiple measures for mortality that can be used in investigating trends. In this paper, we will be using crude death rates, age-adjusted death rates, and period life expectancy.
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• 2020-2021 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex
  August 2022
  This is an update of a report published originally in June 2021 comparing total U.S. population mortality to baseline expectations by age and sex. The report now includes U.S. population numbers through August 17, 2022, so the years 2020 and 2021 are now mostly complete.
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• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2020
  July 2022
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2020.
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• U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2020 Experience
  January 2022
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality. The SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Observations are based on the CDC’s recent release of 2020 mortality experience, along with prior mortality experience data from 1999 through 2019.
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• Life Expectancy Comparison
  October 2021
  A simple comparison of life expectancies for persons age 65 or age 25 in 2021 using various mortality tables. Also look at simple comparisons of probabilities in 2021 of living to age 100 for persons of various ages.
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• Analysis of Historical U.S. Population Mortality
  September
  The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality improvement drivers in the U.S. for the period 1959-2016. The study identifies significant U.S. mortality improvement/deterioration trends since 1959 including, but not limited to, those described in the SOA report, Components of Historical Mortality Improvement, using cause-of-death and other relevant data sources to quantify the likely degree of causality.
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• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2019
  August 2021
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2019.
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• Interstate Variations in Mortality in the United States, 1959-2018
  The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality differentials by state. Using recently updated data from the United States Mortality Database, this report presents an overview of historical mortality trends in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia for the period 1959-2018.
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• U.S. Population Mortality Observations, Preview of 2020 Experience
  June 2021
  The COVID-19 (COVID) pandemic has increased the demand for data and analysis on the impact of COVID on U.S. population mortality. This report is based on 2020 provisional death data released by the CDC. An updated June 2021 report has been added, based on additional 2020 cause of death data from the CDC.
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• 2020 Excess Deaths in the U.S. General Population by Age and Sex, Updated May 2021
  May 2021
  This document describes an effort to measure the deaths in the US population relative to pre-pandemic expectations. The actual deaths used are as reported by the US Center for Disease Control (CDC) and we consider several different methods for setting the expectations, adjusting for the estimated mix by age, sex, and time of the year (seasonality).
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• Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States
  January 2021
  Learn about mortality disparities in the U.S.
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• U.S. Population Mortality Observations – Updated with 2019 Experience
  January 2021
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
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• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2018
  July 2020
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2018.
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• U.S. Population Mortality by Race
  July 2020
  This report covers historical mortality from 1999-2018 by race as categorized by population data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) WONDER database. Mortality for all deaths and six specific causes of death are considered over this period. Additionally, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced mortality as a whole and this report shows the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by race.
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• Projections of COVID-19 Hospitalizations and Deaths, Updated April 24, 2020
  April 2020
  Since the outbreak began in January, numerous research groups throughout the world have developed models to forecast the number of deaths that could result from COVID-19. Dr. Thomas McAndrew and Dr. Nicholas Reich of the University of Massachusetts Amherst have, on a weekly basis beginning in mid-February, surveyed experts who are separately engaged in efforts to model the outbreak. This brief looks at these models.
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• US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2018 Experience
  March 2020
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
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• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2017 
  August 2019           
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2017.
  
  
• U.S. Population Mortality Observations - Preview of 2018 Experience 
  June 2019          
  This report provides early insights into the level of U.S. population mortality in 2018.
  
  
• Mortality and Morbidity Data Sources 
  March 2019          
  This report provides information on other mortality and morbidity data sources to consider. Some of these data sources are rich and complex. This report provides an overview of the data sources’ characteristics and a roadmap to delving into their details.
  
  
• Drivers of U.S. Mortality Improvement Expert Panel Forum Report 
  January 2019          
  This report summarizes a daylong Expert Panel Forum discussion, which included experts from inside and outside the insurance/retirement industry, who were invited to participate in a discussion to provide input about drivers of U.S. mortality improvement for the short and long term.
  
  
• US Population Mortality Observations - Updated with 2017 Experience
  January 2019         
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
  
  
• U.S. Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths 1999-2016
  November 2018         
  This report examines historical U.S. motor vehicle accident mortality experience by age, gender, region, and other factors.
  
  
• U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2016
  September 2018          
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is pleased to present historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2016.
  
  
• Overview of the United States Mortality DataBase
  July 2018 
  This report documents progress on a multi-year project initially funded by the United States National Institutes of Health (through grant #R01-AG010245) with additional support from the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool of the Society of Actuaries. The goal of the project is to foster research on geographic variability in survival within the United States by providing access to standardized historical mortality series for the 4 Census Regions, 9 Census Divisions and 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
  
  
• Population Mortality Observations - Preview of 2017 Experience
  June 2018
  This report reviews estimates of 2017 U.S. population mortality experience from the National Center for Health Statistics’ National Vital Statistics System.
  
  
• Population Mortality Observations  - Updated with 2016 Experience
  January 2018
  This report covers the latest emerging trends in U.S. population mortality.
  
  
• Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk
  November 2017
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA), in a joint project with the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), is creating research projects and education materials on Modeling and Management of Longevity Risk.
  
  
• Components of Historical Mortality Improvement
  October 2017
  This report documents the “Components of Historical Mortality Improvement” project commissioned by the Longevity Advisory Group (LAG) of the Society of Actuaries.
  
  
• Seasonal Influenza in the United States 2016‐2017
  September 2017
  Observations and commentary on the 2016‐2017 and recent flu seasons with relation to various mortality and morbidity measures available through the CDC.
  
  
• US Population Mortality Rate Study - Variation by Age Group, Cause of Death and Region from 2000‐2015
  May 2017
  This report covers US regional population mortality experience during the period 2000-2015. The Society of Actuaries pursued the research as part its ongoing longevity and mortality research initiatives. The purpose of the research is to produce an overview of the differences and similarities in mortality by age group, time, cause of death and region (geographic and urban-rural) to better aid in the understanding of future expected mortality rates and the management of public programs and policy.
  
  
• Expanding the Human Mortality Database to include Cause‐of‐Death Information
  February 2017
  The Human Mortality Database is a unique open‐access collection of detailed mortality and population data for 38 countries with complete and reliable vital registration and census data. This report overviews the development and completion of the HMD data series down to a cause of death level for an initial set of eight populations: Canada, Czech Republic, England and Wales, France, Japan, Norway, Sweden, and the United States.
  
  
• Potentially Preventable Deaths in the U.S.
  December 2016