Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research

Mortality & Longevity Research

2025

• Impact of COVID-19 and Other Causes of Death on Future U.S. Mortality
  February
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute revisits COVID-19's impact on future U.S. mortality with insights from a multidisciplinary panel of experts. Discover how new variants and other causes of death may influence future mortality trends.
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• Pub-2016 Public Retirement plans Mortality Tables - Exposure Draft
  January
  The Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Retirement Plans Experience Committee (RPEC) has released an exposure draft of the Pub-2016 Public Retirement Plans Mortality Tables. The primary focus of this study was a comprehensive review of recent mortality experience of public retirement plans in the United States.

2024

• The Impact of Data Limitations on the Statistical Reliability of Mortality Improvement Rate Estimates
  December
  This report examines how the number of persons (“lives”) covered in a mortality study, and the length of the study period (in years), affects the statistical reliability of mortality improvement rate estimates.
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• Cause-Specific Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Pandemic
  December
  This report presents initial findings from a project investigating the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19 in the post-acute phase of the pandemic.
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• Older Age Mortality Expert Panel Discussion Series
  November
  The first report in this series examines cancer mortality trends, treatments and technology and what might be expected in the future. The second report in the series is scheduled to be released in first quarter 2025.
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• A Predictive Analytics Framework
  November
  This project provides actuaries with a reusable toolset for experience analysis. It includes workflow, code, and a GitHub repository for experimentation and adaptation to individual data sources.
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• Comparison of Lifetable Series by SIS Deciles
  November
  Dr. Magali Barbieri's study compares SIS decile lifetable values for 1982-2022 using current Human Mortality Database protocols and classic techniques.
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• Insurance Demand Trends in Asia Pacific Markets
  November
  Discover how technology is reshaping consumer behaviors in the Asia Pacific Markets.
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• Mortality Improvement Model
  October
  Learn about the recent update (MIM-2021-v4b) to a consistent approach to projecting mortality improvement.
  
  RPEC 2024 Mortality Improvement Update
  October
  This report presents research into recent population mortality experience compiled by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute as it pertains to development of mortality improvement assumptions for measuring obligations of retirement programs in the United States.
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• Impact of AI on Mortality - Essay Collection
  September
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee issued a call for essays to explore the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to mortality and longevity. The objective was to gather a variety of perspectives and experiences on the use of AI in mortality modeling, forecasting and prediction to promote discussion and future research around this topic. The collection includes six essays that were accepted for publication from all submissions. Two essays were chosen for prizes based on their creativity, originality, and likelihood of further thought on the subject matter.
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• Growing Life and Health Insurance Industry Risks from Catastrophic Events
  August
  On May 1, 2024, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute gathered a panel of experts to discuss the growing risks from catastrophic events in the life and health insurance industry and how to model these risks. The panel members were from actuarial, catastrophe risk modeling, and risk management backgrounds. The outcomes of this panel discussion form the basis of this report.
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• Searching for Simplicity: Using Behavioral Science to make Life Insurance Product Information Simple and Effective
  August
  The research presented in this paper provides practical behavioral insights insurers can use to help narrow the customer comprehension gap of life insurance products and creates a direction for future industry research.
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• Maternal Mortality in the United States: A Literature Review
  June
  The purpose of this report is to review past studies on maternal mortality levels, trends, and differentials in the U.S. in a context of rising rates and a recent change in data collection.
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• Mortality and Race and Ethnicity in the United States
  May
  This survey of existing literature can be used by actuaries as an aid in identifying, measuring, modeling and analyzing possible mortality differentials when considering full U.S. population analysis.
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• Updating the Canadian Human Mortality Database
  April
  Through a financial contribution from the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries, the Canadian mortality series in the Human Mortality Database (HMD, www.mortality.org) has been updated to include revised data for 2017-2019 and new data for 2020 and 2021.
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• Navigating Global Insurance Demand Trends
  March
  This report explores the behavioral factors influencing insurance purchase among Gen Z and Millennials for forward-looking purposes, leveraging a rich dataset spanning 22 markets across six continents.
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• Modeling and Forecasting Premature Cardiovascular Mortality
• February
  This project aims to model and forecast premature cardiovascular mortality, with a focus on two main risk factors - obesity status and education attainment level. A key contribution of this research is to investigate the role of obesity and education in determining age-sex-specific premature cardiovascular mortality.
  
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• The Impact of Covid-19 on the Socioeconomic Differential in Mortality in the United States
  February
  The overall goal of the project was to contribute to a better understanding of how the Covid-19 pandemic impacted different socioeconomic groups within the U.S. population and, ultimately, how the health crisis is likely to affect the work of actuaries in the insurance and reinsurance industry.

2023

• Expert Panel on the Impact of Wildfires on U.S. Health and Life Insurers
• December
• The Mortality and Longevity and Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Programs are pleased to make available a report summarizing an expert panel brought together to discuss the impact of wildfires on U.S. health and life insurers.
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• 2023 Living to 100 Compendium
• November
• The SOA Committee on Living to 100 Research Symposia is pleased to present the 2023 Living to 100 Symposia Compendium, with papers on advanced age mortality and mortality improvement, innovation and technology for supporting the elderly, management of longevity risk, implications for society, institutions and individuals, and changes that may be needed to support a growing aging population, biology of aging and other ways the elderly population could be supported in the future.
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• 2022 Accelerated Underwriting Practices Survey Report
• November
• The Society of Actuaries Research Institute is pleased to make available a research report summarizing the findings of two Accelerated Underwriting surveys conducted by Milliman to direct companies and reinsurers. Sponsored by the Marketing & Distribution, Product Development, Reinsurance and Smaller Insurance Company sections, the purpose of the study was to not only determine how practices have changed, but also how they have changed because of COVID-19.
  
  
• The Mortality Improvement Model, MIM-2021-v4
  October
  Different mortality projection methodologies are utilized by actuaries across applications and practice areas. As a result, the MIM Advisory Group developed a single framework to serve as a consistent base for practitioners in projecting mortality improvement.
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• RPEC 2023 Mortality Improvement Update
• October
• This report presents research into recent population mortality experience compiled by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute as it pertains to development of mortality improvement assumptions for measuring obligations of retirement programs in the United States.
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• Impact of COVID-19 on Future U.S. Mortality: Expert Opinion Survey 2
• August
• The SOA Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program is pleased to make available a report summarizing the results of a follow-up survey of a panel of experts on COVID-19 to see how views on the disease’s impact on future U.S. mortality may have changed.
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• Unhealthy Longevity in the United States
  August
  This project is intended to assist both practicing actuaries and the public to better understand differences in mortality for people in good and poor health.
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• Perceptions of Younger Generations on Risk and Insurance
• April
• This study aims to explore the evolution of and trends in how consumers from younger generations understand, investigate, and purchase private insurance plans.

2022

• 2022 Mortality Improvement Survey Report
• December
• This report summarizes the results of the 2022 Mortality Improvement Survey examining mortality improvement practices of life and annuity companies in the U.S. and Canada as of year-end 2021. The survey focused on the use of mortality improvement and how it has changed for financial projection and pricing modeling following the initial stages of COVID-19.
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• Mental Illness and Its Impact on U.S. Mortality and Longevity
• November
• This report examines the impact of mental illness on U.S. population mortality and longevity. It also explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental illness.
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• Overview of Nonguaranteed Elements (NGEs)
• November
• Non-guaranteed elements are parameters of life insurance and annuity polices that are not fixed when the policy is issued but may be changed from time to time by the insurance company. They emerged in the United States and other countries as features of Universal Life and similar products designed to make insurance more competitive in an environment where fully guaranteed products did not have sufficient flexibility to respond to rapidly changing conditions. This overview covers professional guidance, regulations and practical issues with reviewing and revising non-guaranteed parameters.
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• Mortality Improvement Model, MIM-2021-v3
• October
• Learn about the recent update to a consistent approach to projecting mortality improvement.
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• RPEC 2022 Mortality Improvement Update
• October
• This report presents research into recent population mortality experience compiled by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute as it pertains to development of mortality improvement assumptions for measuring obligations of retirement programs in the United States.
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• Mortality Improvement Trends, Independent Analysis on Socioeconomic and Other Drivers
• October
• Using results from a literature review and data from the U.S. Census Bureau that spans 1985-2015, the authors analyzed mortality improvement patterns across key variables and causes of death. Results of the research quantify differences in mortality improvement between key socioeconomic groups and demonstrates how they change over time.
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• Instructions for exploring the results in more detail (or recreating the report figures) can be found in Appendix F.
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• Analyzing Geographical Variation in Cause-of-Death Mortality for China
• September
• This report models and forecasts future mortality improvements in China, by geographical regions, as well as by causes of death. Deaths and population exposures data provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was used for the period 2004–2019.
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• Accelerated Underwriting Regulator Survey
• September
• The SOA Research Institute engaged Milliman to perform a study examining life insurer practices on accelerated underwriting and how COVID-19 has impacted them. This effort included a separate outreach to actuaries working for twelve different state insurance departments. At the time of this report, three responses to our regulatory survey had been received. Therefore, the results of the three-question survey are discussed in broad terms, rather than using numerical measurements.
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• The second survey in the accelerated underwriting project examining individual life insurer practices such as how accelerated underwriting is being used within a company and what goes into creating an accelerated underwriting algorithm will be opened in early October. Companies interested in participating should contact Ronora Stryker at rstryker@soa.org.
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• COVID-19 and the Short-Term Impact on Future U.S. Mortality
• August
• As results emerged showing the influence of COVID-19 on recent mortality, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC) began to ponder what it means for the future. To gather insights into what the future may hold, a panel of 59 experts of varying backgrounds participated in a survey examining how COVID-19 might affect future U.S. general population mortality.
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• Cause-of-Death Contributions to Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality in the United States
• June
• This study of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality builds on a previous report in which we identified a large and growing gradient in life expectancy between 1982 and 2019 across U.S. counties classified into 10 socioeconomically homogeneous categories. In this report, we seek to identify the particular causes of death contributing to the growing disadvantage in mortality between populations in the least and most affluent deciles as previously defined.
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• Mortality Improvement Model, MIM-2021-v2
• June
• Learn about the Spring 2022 status update to a consistent approach to projecting mortality improvement.
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• Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey - Updated through September 2021
• January
• The Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey gathers a high-level view of U.S. Group Term Life Insurance mortality results during the COVID-19 pandemic through September 2021, as compared to prior period baseline mortality results. This new report is an update to the survey report released in July 2021, which contained data through March 2021.

2021

• Obesity Trends and the Impact on Morbidity and Mortality Costs
  December
  The Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC)  is pleased to present new research on obesity trends in the U.S. and Canada. This report examines the latest trends in obesity prevalence. Using this information along with cost information gathered from a review of literature, an estimate of the economic burden of obesity in the U.S. and Canada is determined.  
  

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• U.S. Individual Life COVID-19 Mortality Experience Study – Fourth Quarter 2020 Update
  November
  This report is the third public release from this report series and contains the results of an excess mortality analysis for the four quarter of 2020. Data from 31 companies representing approximately 72% of the industry’s face amount inforce have been included in the analyses in this report. A total of 2.9 million death claims from individual life policies from 2015 through December 31, 2020 make up the basis of the analyses. The report also compares the experience under COVID-19 of the insured population versus the general population.
  
  

  Mortality Improvement Scale MP-2021
  October
  This annual update to RPEC’s mortality improvement scales reflects historical U.S. population mortality experience through 2019.
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• Mortality Improvement Model, MIM-2021-v2
  October
  Learn about the recent update to a consistent approach to projecting mortality improvement.
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• Analysis of Historical U.S. Population Mortality
  September
  The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality improvement drivers in the U.S. for the period 1959-2016. The study identifies significant U.S. mortality improvement/deterioration trends since 1959 including, but not limited to, those described in the SOA report, Components of Historical Mortality Improvement, using cause-of-death and other relevant data sources to quantify the likely degree of causality.
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• Final Report on Activities of 2019 HMD Project
  August
  The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee is pleased to present a new report summarizing the work accomplished under the 2019 research grant supporting the Human Mortality Database (HMD) team.
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• Interstate Variations in Mortality in the United States, 1959-2018
  July
  The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality differentials by state. Using recently updated data from the United States Mortality Database, this report presents an overview of historical mortality trends in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia for the period 1959-2018.
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• Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality by Socioeconomic Factors
  July
  Sponsored by the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool, this study enhances existing research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality. Authored by a Milliman team led by Alexandre Boumezoued, the report provides a toolkit for actuaries and others to model and forecast mortality by cause and socioeconomic factors.
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• Incorporating Datavant’s Death Index in Mortality Analysis
  March
  One of the evolving datasets with the COVID-19 Research Database is the Datavant population mortality information. This report notes the features of the database, discuss their potential use and limitations, examines data reliability and reviews it potential use as an additional data set and input to mortality improvement models.
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• Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States: Data Summary
  March
  Authored by Dr. Magali Barbieri, the research examines socioeconomic differences in historical U.S. population mortality trends and produced a set of life tables. This paper highlights some of the observed trends across the 36-year period covered by the data.
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• Life Pandemic Model, Updates to U.S. Life Insurance Industry Moderate Scenario
  January
  This paper updates several model assumptions in the research previously released in 2007, including mortality in light of COVID-19.

2020

• Mortality By Socioeconomic Category
  November
  This SOA-sponsored research report presents mortality analysis and rate estimates for the United States by year from 1982 through 2019, separately by socioeconomic quintile and decile. Details on the development of the estimates are summarized in the report. The life tables by socioeconomic category are available for download, and some of the results are presented in online graphs and maps.
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• Society of Actuaries Research Brief: Impact of COVID-19, June 12, 2020
  June
  This Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key features of the COVID-19 epidemic and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work.
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• 2020 Living to 100 Symposium Essays
  April
  The SOA Committee on Living to 100 Research Symposia is pleased to present the following essays on recent old age mortality, mortality improvement trends and social issues on aging populations.
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• Simplified Issue Underwriting
  February
  The Society of Actuaries ‘ Committee on Life Insurance Research, the Financial Reporting Section, the Product Development Section, and the Smaller Insurance Company Section release a new report on simplified issue underwriting for life insurance.
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• Longevity Perceptions and Drivers: How Americans View Life Expectancy
  January
  The Society of Actuaries’ Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Committee announce the release of a new report examining the question of how well individuals estimate their own life expectancy and probability of survival.

2019

• Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality
  December
  The Product Development Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Modeling Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present new research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality.
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• Accelerated Underwriting Practices Survey
  December
  The Reinsurance Section, Product Development Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present results from a company practice survey of individual life insurance accelerated underwriting.
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• Application of Credibility Theory in the Canadian Life Insurance Industry
  November
  The Society of Actuaries’ Product Development Section, Financial Reporting Section, Committee on Life Insurance Research and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries announce the release of a new Application of Credibility Theory in the Canadian Life Insurance Industry research report.
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• Economic Impact of Non-Medical Opioid Use in the United States
  October
  This report summarizes a study that estimates the total economic burden of the opioid crisis in the United States from 2015 through 2018 and projects future costs of the opioid epidemic for 2019.
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• A Machine Learning Approach to Incorporating Industry Mortality Table Features into a Company’s Insured Mortality Analysis
  September
  The Product Development Section, the Modeling Section, the Reinsurance Section and the Financial Reporting Section announce the release of a new research report that introduces a novel framework for leveraging the “architecture” of an industry mortality table within a company’s predictive analytics-based insured mortality analysis.
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• Life Expectancy Comparison
  August
  One-page comparisons of life expectancy at age 65 using various mortality tables. A separate page shows comparisons of life expectancy at age 25.
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• Living to 100 Insights on the Challenges and Opportunities of Longevity 
  April 
  Report on Living to 100 Insights on the Challenges and Opportunities of Longevity.
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• Drivers of U.S. Mortality Improvement Expert Panel Forum Report 
  January 
  This report summarizes a daylong Expert Panel Forum discussion, which included experts from inside and outside the insurance/retirement industry, who were invited to participate in a discussion to provide input about drivers of U.S. mortality improvement for the short and long term.

2018

• Modeling and Forecasting Chinese Population Dynamics in a Multi-Population Context 
  December 
  The purpose of this project is to forecast China's population structure in the coming decades by projecting both the mortality and fertility rates of the Chinese population. In particular, we forecast China's future mortality rates in a multiple-population context, by explicitly allowing its systematic mortality patterns to gradually converge to those of a group of more developed countries with higher life expectancy levels and better data quality.
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• Mortality Analysis of 1898-1902 Birth Cohort
  December
  The Reinsurance Section, Product Development Section and Committee on Life Insurance Research announce the release of a new report on the mortality analysis of 1898-1902 birth cohorts.
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• The Impact of Genetic Testing on Life Insurance Mortality
  October
  The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Reinsurance Section, Product Development Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research, are pleased to make available new research exploring genetic testing and U.S. life insurance mortality.
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• Overview of the United States Mortality DataBase
  July
  This report documents progress on a multi-year project initially funded by the United States National Institutes of Health (through grant #R01-AG010245) with additional support from the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool of the Society of Actuaries. The goal of the project is to foster research on geographic variability in survival within the United States by providing access to standardized historical mortality series for the 4 Census Regions, 9 Census Divisions and 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
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• Survey of Waiver of Premium/Monthly Deduction Rider Assumptions and Experience
  March
  This paper summarizes the results of a survey of waiver of premium/monthly deduction rider assumptions and experience.

2017

• Living to 100 Monograph
  September
  Access the monograph on longevity and retirement from the SOA Living to 100 Symposium.
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• Predictive Models on Conversion Studies for the Level Premium Term Plans
  March
  The Reinsurance Section, Product Development Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research announce the release of a new report summarizing the third phase results of a multi-phase study on term conversions. This report explores conversion rates and post-conversion experience using predictive analytics.
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• Expanding the Human Mortality Database to include Cause‐of‐Death Information
  February
  The Human Mortality Database is a unique open‐access collection of detailed mortality and population data for 38 countries with complete and reliable vital registration and census data. This report overviews the development and completion of the HMD data series down to a cause of death level for an initial set of eight populations: Canada, Czech Republic, England and Wales, France, Japan, Norway, Sweden, and the United States.

2016

• Living to 100 Insight on the Challenges and Opportunities of Longevity
  October 
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• 2017 GRET Recommendation
  September
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• Report on the Conversion Experience Study for Level Premium Term Plans
  June
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• The Sightlines Project – Seeing Our Way to Living Long, Living Well in 21st Century America
  April 

2015

• 2016 GRET Recommendation
  August
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• Report on the Survey of Conversion Assumptions and Product Features for Level Premium Term Plans
  June
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• Report on 2014 VBT/2017 CSO Impact Study: Considerations for Life Insurance Products
  June
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• Living Benefit Riders Report
  April
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• Lapse Modeling for the Post-Level Period – A Practical Application of Predictive Modeling
  January

2014

• 2015 GRET Recommendation
  July
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• Modeling of Policyholder Behavior for Life Insurance and Annuity Products
  May
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• Select Period Mortality Survey
  March
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• 2014 Living to 100 Monograph
  January

2013

• Report on the Survey of Older Age Mortality And Other Assumptions
  May

2012

• Behavioral Simulations: Using agent-based modeling to understand policyholder behaviors
  December
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• Report on Premium Persistency Assumptions Study of Flexible Premium Universal Life Products
  May
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• High Face Amount Mortality Study
  April
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• Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Joint Risk Management Section Working Group Variable Annuity Guaranteed Benefits 2011 Survey Results
  March

2011

• Experience Data Quality: How to Clean and Validate Your Data
  December
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• New Medical Markers in Life Insurance Underwriting
  December
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• Mortality Comparisons and Risk Exposures in the Older Age U.S. Financial Services Market
  December
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• Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Risk Management Section Working Group UL with Secondary Guarantee 2011 Survey Results
  November
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• Global Mortality Improvement Experience and Projection Techniques
  July
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• Implications of the Perceptions of Post Retirement Risk for the Life Insurance Industry: Inside Track Marketing Opportunity, But Requiring Focused Retooling
  March
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• Obesity and its Relation to Mortality and Morbidity Costs
  January
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• Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Joint Risk Management Section Working Group Variable Annuity Guaranteed Benefits 2010 Survey Results
  January
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• 2011 Living to 100 Monograph
  January

2010

• Barriers to Financial Advice for Non-Affluent Consumers
  October
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• Automated Life Underwriting: Phase 2
  September
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• Predictive Modeling for Life Insurers
  August
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• Lapse and Mortality Experience of Post-Level Premium Period Term Plans
  July
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• Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Risk Management Section Working Group UL with Secondary Guarantee 2009 Survey Results
  April
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• Automated Life Underwriting
  January

2009

• Credibility Theory Practices
  December
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• Post Level Premium Period Lapse and Mortality Assumptions and Experience for Level Premium Term Plans
  October
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• Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Joint Risk Management Section Working Group Variable Annuity Guaranteed Benefits 2009 Survey Results
  October
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• Longevity Risk Quantification and Management: A Review of Relevant literature
  January

2008

• Stochastic Pricing for Embedded Options in Life Insurance and Annuity Products
  December
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• Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Risk Management Section Working Group UL with Secondary Guarantee 2008 Survey Results
  November
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• Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Risk Management Section Working Group Variable Annuity Guaranteed Benefits 2007 & 2008 Survey Results
  August
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• 2008 Living to 100 Monograph
  January

2007

• Persistence of Individual Mortality Risk Differentials Utilizing A Modified Online Predictive Market
  September
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• Potential Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the U.S. Life Insurance Industry
  June
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• Post Level Premium "Shock Lapse" Experience Survey
  May

2006

• Substandard Annuities Report
  August

2005

• Mortality of Beneficiaries of Charitable Gift Annuities
  December
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• Non–Traditional Guarantees on Life and Annuity Products
  December
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• Living to 100 and Beyond: Search for Predictors of Exceptional Human Longevity
  November
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• Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Risk Management Section Working Group Variable Annuity Guaranteed Benefits Survey Results
  November
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• Economic Effects of Environmental Tobacco Smoke
  July
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• 2005 Living to 100 Monograph
  January

2003

• Why Men Die Younger: Causes of Mortality Differences by Sex
  October

2002

• 2002 Living to 100 Monograph
  January