Mortality & Longevity Research

2024

A Predictive Analytics Framework
November
This project provides actuaries with a reusable toolset for experience analysis. It includes workflow, code, and a GitHub repository for experimentation and adaptation to individual data sources.
Comparison of Lifetable Series by SIS Deciles
November
Dr. Magali Barbieri's study compares SIS decile lifetable values for 1982-2022 using current Human Mortality Database protocols and classic techniques.
Insurance Demand Trends in Asia Pacific Markets
November
Discover how technology is reshaping consumer behaviors in the Asia Pacific Markets.
Mortality Improvement Model
October
Learn about the recent update (MIM-2021-v4b) to a consistent approach to projecting mortality improvement.

RPEC 2024 Mortality Improvement Update
October
This report presents research into recent population mortality experience compiled by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute as it pertains to development of mortality improvement assumptions for measuring obligations of retirement programs in the United States.
Impact of AI on Mortality - Essay Collection
September
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee issued a call for essays to explore the application of artificial intelligence (AI) to mortality and longevity. The objective was to gather a variety of perspectives and experiences on the use of AI in mortality modeling, forecasting and prediction to promote discussion and future research around this topic. The collection includes six essays that were accepted for publication from all submissions. Two essays were chosen for prizes based on their creativity, originality, and likelihood of further thought on the subject matter.
Growing Life and Health Insurance Industry Risks from Catastrophic Events
August
On May 1, 2024, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute gathered a panel of experts to discuss the growing risks from catastrophic events in the life and health insurance industry and how to model these risks. The panel members were from actuarial, catastrophe risk modeling, and risk management backgrounds. The outcomes of this panel discussion form the basis of this report.
Searching for Simplicity: Using Behavioral Science to make Life Insurance Product Information Simple and Effective
August
The research presented in this paper provides practical behavioral insights insurers can use to help narrow the customer comprehension gap of life insurance products and creates a direction for future industry research.
Maternal Mortality in the United States: A Literature Review
June
The purpose of this report is to review past studies on maternal mortality levels, trends, and differentials in the U.S. in a context of rising rates and a recent change in data collection.
Mortality and Race and Ethnicity in the United States
May
This survey of existing literature can be used by actuaries as an aid in identifying, measuring, modeling and analyzing possible mortality differentials when considering full U.S. population analysis.
Updating the Canadian Human Mortality Database
April
Through a financial contribution from the Canadian Institute of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries, the Canadian mortality series in the Human Mortality Database (HMD, www.mortality.org) has been updated to include revised data for 2017-2019 and new data for 2020 and 2021.
Navigating Global Insurance Demand Trends
March
This report explores the behavioral factors influencing insurance purchase among Gen Z and Millennials for forward-looking purposes, leveraging a rich dataset spanning 22 markets across six continents.
Modeling and Forecasting Premature Cardiovascular Mortality
February
This project aims to model and forecast premature cardiovascular mortality, with a focus on two main risk factors - obesity status and education attainment level. A key contribution of this research is to investigate the role of obesity and education in determining age-sex-specific premature cardiovascular mortality.
The Impact of Covid-19 on the Socioeconomic Differential in Mortality in the United States
February
The overall goal of the project was to contribute to a better understanding of how the Covid-19 pandemic impacted different socioeconomic groups within the U.S. population and, ultimately, how the health crisis is likely to affect the work of actuaries in the insurance and reinsurance industry.

2023

Expert Panel on the Impact of Wildfires on U.S. Health and Life Insurers
December
The Mortality and Longevity and Catastrophe and Climate Strategic Research Programs are pleased to make available a report summarizing an expert panel brought together to discuss the impact of wildfires on U.S. health and life insurers.
2023 Living to 100 Compendium
November
The SOA Committee on Living to 100 Research Symposia is pleased to present the 2023 Living to 100 Symposia Compendium, with papers on advanced age mortality and mortality improvement, innovation and technology for supporting the elderly, management of longevity risk, implications for society, institutions and individuals, and changes that may be needed to support a growing aging population, biology of aging and other ways the elderly population could be supported in the future.
2022 Accelerated Underwriting Practices Survey Report
November
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute is pleased to make available a research report summarizing the findings of two Accelerated Underwriting surveys conducted by Milliman to direct companies and reinsurers. Sponsored by the Marketing & Distribution, Product Development, Reinsurance and Smaller Insurance Company sections, the purpose of the study was to not only determine how practices have changed, but also how they have changed because of COVID-19.
The Mortality Improvement Model, MIM-2021-v4
October
Different mortality projection methodologies are utilized by actuaries across applications and practice areas. As a result, the MIM Advisory Group developed a single framework to serve as a consistent base for practitioners in projecting mortality improvement.
RPEC 2023 Mortality Improvement Update
October
This report presents research into recent population mortality experience compiled by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute as it pertains to development of mortality improvement assumptions for measuring obligations of retirement programs in the United States.
Impact of COVID-19 on Future U.S. Mortality: Expert Opinion Survey 2
August
The SOA Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program is pleased to make available a report summarizing the results of a follow-up survey of a panel of experts on COVID-19 to see how views on the disease’s impact on future U.S. mortality may have changed.
Unhealthy Longevity in the United States
August
This project is intended to assist both practicing actuaries and the public to better understand differences in mortality for people in good and poor health.
Perceptions of Younger Generations on Risk and Insurance
April
This study aims to explore the evolution of and trends in how consumers from younger generations understand, investigate, and purchase private insurance plans.

2022

2022 Mortality Improvement Survey Report
December
This report summarizes the results of the 2022 Mortality Improvement Survey examining mortality improvement practices of life and annuity companies in the U.S. and Canada as of year-end 2021. The survey focused on the use of mortality improvement and how it has changed for financial projection and pricing modeling following the initial stages of COVID-19.
Mental Illness and Its Impact on U.S. Mortality and Longevity
November
This report examines the impact of mental illness on U.S. population mortality and longevity. It also explores the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mental illness.
Overview of Nonguaranteed Elements (NGEs)
November
Non-guaranteed elements are parameters of life insurance and annuity polices that are not fixed when the policy is issued but may be changed from time to time by the insurance company. They emerged in the United States and other countries as features of Universal Life and similar products designed to make insurance more competitive in an environment where fully guaranteed products did not have sufficient flexibility to respond to rapidly changing conditions. This overview covers professional guidance, regulations and practical issues with reviewing and revising non-guaranteed parameters.
Mortality Improvement Model, MIM-2021-v3
October
Learn about the recent update to a consistent approach to projecting mortality improvement.
RPEC 2022 Mortality Improvement Update
October
This report presents research into recent population mortality experience compiled by the Retirement Plans Experience Committee of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute as it pertains to development of mortality improvement assumptions for measuring obligations of retirement programs in the United States.
Mortality Improvement Trends, Independent Analysis on Socioeconomic and Other Drivers
October
Using results from a literature review and data from the U.S. Census Bureau that spans 1985-2015, the authors analyzed mortality improvement patterns across key variables and causes of death. Results of the research quantify differences in mortality improvement between key socioeconomic groups and demonstrates how they change over time.
Instructions for exploring the results in more detail (or recreating the report figures) can be found in Appendix F.
Analyzing Geographical Variation in Cause-of-Death Mortality for China
September
This report models and forecasts future mortality improvements in China, by geographical regions, as well as by causes of death. Deaths and population exposures data provided by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention was used for the period 2004–2019.
Accelerated Underwriting Regulator Survey
September
The SOA Research Institute engaged Milliman to perform a study examining life insurer practices on accelerated underwriting and how COVID-19 has impacted them. This effort included a separate outreach to actuaries working for twelve different state insurance departments. At the time of this report, three responses to our regulatory survey had been received. Therefore, the results of the three-question survey are discussed in broad terms, rather than using numerical measurements.
The second survey in the accelerated underwriting project examining individual life insurer practices such as how accelerated underwriting is being used within a company and what goes into creating an accelerated underwriting algorithm will be opened in early October. Companies interested in participating should contact Ronora Stryker at rstryker@soa.org.
COVID-19 and the Short-Term Impact on Future U.S. Mortality
August
As results emerged showing the influence of COVID-19 on recent mortality, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC) began to ponder what it means for the future. To gather insights into what the future may hold, a panel of 59 experts of varying backgrounds participated in a survey examining how COVID-19 might affect future U.S. general population mortality.
Cause-of-Death Contributions to Socioeconomic Inequalities in Mortality in the United States
June
This study of socioeconomic inequalities in mortality builds on a previous report in which we identified a large and growing gradient in life expectancy between 1982 and 2019 across U.S. counties classified into 10 socioeconomically homogeneous categories. In this report, we seek to identify the particular causes of death contributing to the growing disadvantage in mortality between populations in the least and most affluent deciles as previously defined.
Mortality Improvement Model, MIM-2021-v2
June
Learn about the Spring 2022 status update to a consistent approach to projecting mortality improvement.
Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey - Updated through September 2021
January
The Group Life COVID-19 Mortality Survey gathers a high-level view of U.S. Group Term Life Insurance mortality results during the COVID-19 pandemic through September 2021, as compared to prior period baseline mortality results. This new report is an update to the survey report released in July 2021, which contained data through March 2021.

2021

Obesity Trends and the Impact on Morbidity and Mortality Costs
December
The Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC) is pleased to present new research on obesity trends in the U.S. and Canada. This report examines the latest trends in obesity prevalence. Using this information along with cost information gathered from a review of literature, an estimate of the economic burden of obesity in the U.S. and Canada is determined.
U.S. Individual Life COVID-19 Mortality Experience Study – Fourth Quarter 2020 Update
November
This report is the third public release from this report series and contains the results of an excess mortality analysis for the four quarter of 2020. Data from 31 companies representing approximately 72% of the industry’s face amount inforce have been included in the analyses in this report. A total of 2.9 million death claims from individual life policies from 2015 through December 31, 2020 make up the basis of the analyses. The report also compares the experience under COVID-19 of the insured population versus the general population.

Mortality Improvement Scale MP-2021
October
This annual update to RPEC’s mortality improvement scales reflects historical U.S. population mortality experience through 2019.
Mortality Improvement Model, MIM-2021-v2
October
Learn about the recent update to a consistent approach to projecting mortality improvement.
Analysis of Historical U.S. Population Mortality
September
The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality improvement drivers in the U.S. for the period 1959-2016. The study identifies significant U.S. mortality improvement/deterioration trends since 1959 including, but not limited to, those described in the SOA report, Components of Historical Mortality Improvement, using cause-of-death and other relevant data sources to quantify the likely degree of causality.
Final Report on Activities of 2019 HMD Project
August
The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee is pleased to present a new report summarizing the work accomplished under the 2019 research grant supporting the Human Mortality Database (HMD) team.
Interstate Variations in Mortality in the United States, 1959-2018
July
The Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committees is pleased to present a new report examining mortality differentials by state. Using recently updated data from the United States Mortality Database, this report presents an overview of historical mortality trends in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia for the period 1959-2018.
Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality by Socioeconomic Factors
July
Sponsored by the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool, this study enhances existing research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality. Authored by a Milliman team led by Alexandre Boumezoued, the report provides a toolkit for actuaries and others to model and forecast mortality by cause and socioeconomic factors.
Incorporating Datavant’s Death Index in Mortality Analysis
March
One of the evolving datasets with the COVID-19 Research Database is the Datavant population mortality information. This report notes the features of the database, discuss their potential use and limitations, examines data reliability and reviews it potential use as an additional data set and input to mortality improvement models.
Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States: Data Summary
March
Authored by Dr. Magali Barbieri, the research examines socioeconomic differences in historical U.S. population mortality trends and produced a set of life tables. This paper highlights some of the observed trends across the 36-year period covered by the data.
Life Pandemic Model, Updates to U.S. Life Insurance Industry Moderate Scenario
January
This paper updates several model assumptions in the research previously released in 2007, including mortality in light of COVID-19.

2020

Mortality By Socioeconomic Category
November
This SOA-sponsored research report presents mortality analysis and rate estimates for the United States by year from 1982 through 2019, separately by socioeconomic quintile and decile. Details on the development of the estimates are summarized in the report. The life tables by socioeconomic category are available for download, and some of the results are presented in online graphs and maps.
Society of Actuaries Research Brief: Impact of COVID-19, June 12, 2020
June
This Society of Actuaries Research Brief has been constructed to highlight some of the key features of the COVID-19 epidemic and contemplate the risks for the actuarial profession to consider in their work.
2020 Living to 100 Symposium Essays
April
The SOA Committee on Living to 100 Research Symposia is pleased to present the following essays on recent old age mortality, mortality improvement trends and social issues on aging populations.
Simplified Issue Underwriting
February
The Society of Actuaries ‘ Committee on Life Insurance Research, the Financial Reporting Section, the Product Development Section, and the Smaller Insurance Company Section release a new report on simplified issue underwriting for life insurance.
Longevity Perceptions and Drivers: How Americans View Life Expectancy
January
The Society of Actuaries’ Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Committee announce the release of a new report examining the question of how well individuals estimate their own life expectancy and probability of survival.

2019

Modeling and Forecasting Cause-of-Death Mortality
December
The Product Development Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Modeling Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present new research on modeling and forecasting cause-of-death mortality.
Accelerated Underwriting Practices Survey
December
The Reinsurance Section, Product Development Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to present results from a company practice survey of individual life insurance accelerated underwriting.
Application of Credibility Theory in the Canadian Life Insurance Industry
November
The Society of Actuaries’ Product Development Section, Financial Reporting Section, Committee on Life Insurance Research and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries announce the release of a new Application of Credibility Theory in the Canadian Life Insurance Industry research report.
Economic Impact of Non-Medical Opioid Use in the United States
October
This report summarizes a study that estimates the total economic burden of the opioid crisis in the United States from 2015 through 2018 and projects future costs of the opioid epidemic for 2019.
A Machine Learning Approach to Incorporating Industry Mortality Table Features into a Company’s Insured Mortality Analysis
September
The Product Development Section, the Modeling Section, the Reinsurance Section and the Financial Reporting Section announce the release of a new research report that introduces a novel framework for leveraging the “architecture” of an industry mortality table within a company’s predictive analytics-based insured mortality analysis.
Life Expectancy Comparison
August
One-page comparisons of life expectancy at age 65 using various mortality tables. A separate page shows comparisons of life expectancy at age 25.
Living to 100 Insights on the Challenges and Opportunities of Longevity
April
Report on Living to 100 Insights on the Challenges and Opportunities of Longevity.
Drivers of U.S. Mortality Improvement Expert Panel Forum Report
January
This report summarizes a daylong Expert Panel Forum discussion, which included experts from inside and outside the insurance/retirement industry, who were invited to participate in a discussion to provide input about drivers of U.S. mortality improvement for the short and long term.

2018

Modeling and Forecasting Chinese Population Dynamics in a Multi-Population Context
December
The purpose of this project is to forecast China's population structure in the coming decades by projecting both the mortality and fertility rates of the Chinese population. In particular, we forecast China's future mortality rates in a multiple-population context, by explicitly allowing its systematic mortality patterns to gradually converge to those of a group of more developed countries with higher life expectancy levels and better data quality.
Mortality Analysis of 1898-1902 Birth Cohort
December
The Reinsurance Section, Product Development Section and Committee on Life Insurance Research announce the release of a new report on the mortality analysis of 1898-1902 birth cohorts.
The Impact of Genetic Testing on Life Insurance Mortality
October
The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Reinsurance Section, Product Development Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research, are pleased to make available new research exploring genetic testing and U.S. life insurance mortality.
Overview of the United States Mortality DataBase
July
This report documents progress on a multi-year project initially funded by the United States National Institutes of Health (through grant #R01-AG010245) with additional support from the Research Expanding Boundaries Pool of the Society of Actuaries. The goal of the project is to foster research on geographic variability in survival within the United States by providing access to standardized historical mortality series for the 4 Census Regions, 9 Census Divisions and 50 states plus the District of Columbia.
Survey of Waiver of Premium/Monthly Deduction Rider Assumptions and Experience
March
This paper summarizes the results of a survey of waiver of premium/monthly deduction rider assumptions and experience.

2017

Living to 100 Monograph
September
Access the monograph on longevity and retirement from the SOA Living to 100 Symposium.
Predictive Models on Conversion Studies for the Level Premium Term Plans
March
The Reinsurance Section, Product Development Section and the Committee on Life Insurance Research announce the release of a new report summarizing the third phase results of a multi-phase study on term conversions. This report explores conversion rates and post-conversion experience using predictive analytics.
Expanding the Human Mortality Database to include Cause‐of‐Death Information
February
The Human Mortality Database is a unique open‐access collection of detailed mortality and population data for 38 countries with complete and reliable vital registration and census data. This report overviews the development and completion of the HMD data series down to a cause of death level for an initial set of eight populations: Canada, Czech Republic, England and Wales, France, Japan, Norway, Sweden, and the United States.

2016

Living to 100 Insight on the Challenges and Opportunities of Longevity
October
2017 GRET Recommendation
September
Report on the Conversion Experience Study for Level Premium Term Plans
June
The Sightlines Project – Seeing Our Way to Living Long, Living Well in 21st Century America
April

2015

2014

2015 GRET Recommendation
July
Modeling of Policyholder Behavior for Life Insurance and Annuity Products
May
Select Period Mortality Survey
March
2014 Living to 100 Monograph
January

2013

Report on the Survey of Older Age Mortality And Other Assumptions
May

2012

2011

2010

Barriers to Financial Advice for Non-Affluent Consumers
October
Automated Life Underwriting: Phase 2
September
Predictive Modeling for Life Insurers
August
Lapse and Mortality Experience of Post-Level Premium Period Term Plans
July
Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Risk Management Section Working Group UL with Secondary Guarantee 2009 Survey Results
April
Automated Life Underwriting
January

2009

2008

2007

Future Actuaries

Major Meetings

Major Meetings

Major Meetings