Post Pandemic Mortality by Generation
Background
Although the COVID-19 pandemic emergency is declared over, uncertainty remains around the direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on future U.S. population mortality. During the pandemic there has been a deterioration in mortality from non-COVID-19 causes such as heart disease and opioid use that some have speculated are fueled by long COVID, delayed medical treatment, isolation and more that occurred during the pandemic. In comparing 2021 to 2019 the cumulative U.S. population mortality deterioration occurred at all ages with young and middle aged adults being impacted the most. Investigating COVID-19’s potential impact on future mortality can help actuaries and others model future insured and U.S. general populations.
Research Objective and Deliverables
The research will assess the direct and indirect impact of Covid-19 during the pandemic and on future mortality emphasizing generational differences. Among the topics to be examined:
- Develop estimates of future mortality
- Compare and contrast how generations have fared during the pandemic and an outlook for future mortality.
- Identify the direct and indirect drivers of the mortality trends and discuss the future outlook for them.
- Discuss if the direct and indirect COVID-19 impacts are short-term or long-term. For example, as today’s middle aged adults age, will they continue to experience higher levels of mortality even when they reach old age?
- Identify considerations for modeling future mortality.
The deliverable is a report summarizing results and conclusions.
Target Audience and Impact
- Actuaries and insurers better understand and project the direct and indirect impact of COVID-19 on future mortality to enhance underwriting, pricing, valuation and other purposes.
- Public and private entities understand and estimate future needs and development of strategies to address them
Estimated Cost
$50,000-100,000
Estimated Timeline
Approximately 9 months