The Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on Mortality Modeling, Forecasting and Prediction

Background and Purpose

There are risks and opportunities of using artificial intelligence (AI) on mortality and longevity.

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program is interested in an exploration of the application of AI to mortality and longevity from a variety of perspectives. The result of this effort is intended to provide a useful resource for readers to increase awareness and discussion around this topic and to set the stage for future research.

This is the first in a series of calls for essays on the impact of AI on mortality and longevity. For this call for essays, we are interested in the impact of AI on mortality and longevity modeling, forecasting and prediction.

Sample Topics of Interest for Essays

The Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee seeks essays that address the use of AI in actuarial practice for modeling and forecasting mortality as well as its implications. This invitation has been deliberately written broadly to allow respondents the flexibility to address this topic from one or more perspectives and approaches. Respondents are free to choose from one or more of the sample topics below or propose others that fall within the scope of this area as described in the above section. Please note that the list is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be considered.

Sample topics include:

• What are the ways AI can be used in actuarial analysis of mortality modeling and forecasting?
• What nontraditional data sources could be used in the application of AI to mortality modeling and forecasting?
• What are the risks involved in utilizing these methods for mortality modeling and forecasting?
• What are the biases in utilizing these methods for mortality modeling and forecasting?
• How should the results of the use of these methods be validated and/or verified for reasonableness?
• What are the considerations for actuaries and insurers in applying AI to mortality modeling and forecasting in light of the current and future regulatory landscapes?
• How will the use of AI in mortality modeling and forecasting change the role of actuaries in identifying, measuring and managing mortality risks?

Rules for Submission of Essays

Timeline

The deadline for submissions is June 30, 2024. Essays will be published as soon as possible in a formal collection.

Special Consideration for Essays

Given the topic of this call for essays, two categories of essay submissions have been established. Category 1 includes essays written by individuals without help of AI tools. Category 2 is for essays written primarily or partially by one or more AI tools. Each category of submitted essays will be reviewed separately for publication and award determination. Authors should note which category they are submitting their essays for consideration. For Category 2 essays, the extent that the tool was used should be clearly identified and it would be helpful to describe what prompts were used and why they were used.

Length and Instructions for Submission

Essays must be submitted in English with a desired length of between 500 to 2,500 words. There is no requirement for formal or extensive footnoting.

Author information must be submitted with the essay and include name; credentials or designations (if appropriate); title; organization/company; e-mail address; and phone number. Please provide all author information at the beginning of the essay.

Essays that contain any overt political statements, commercial content, and other inappropriate material will not be accepted. Articles must comply with the SOA's antitrust guidelines.

Please submit your essay via e–mail to Research-ML@soa.org.

Awards

$5,000 in award money has been allocated for this call for essays. The review committee will select the leading essays and determine how to allocate the award money among them. Consideration will be given to creativity, originality and the extent to which an idea might help promote further thought in this area and advance actuarial practice. In exchange for award money, selected authors will be required to assign all copyrights in their essays to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Authors are ineligible for awards if an essay is based on an SOA Research Institute-sponsored and funded research study conducted by the author. However, authors are welcome to submit such essays for publication consideration.

Publication and Presentation

Depending on how many essays are received and the range of the topic areas, a suitable format for electronic publication and dissemination will be selected. Essays may also be presented at an SOA meeting, webcast, or other professional development event.

In addition, other venues for publication or presentation of the ideas outside of the Institute will be considered. It is hoped that publication of the collected essays will further knowledge and stimulate discussion as well as promote future efforts in this area.

Rights Granted

Please understand that by submitting an essay for consideration, the essay author(s) is granting to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute an unlimited license to print or republish their essay, with proper attribution given to the author(s).

Questions

Please direct any questions regarding this Call for Essays to Research-ML@soa.org.