Edition

Risks Emerging from Artificial Intelligence (AI) Widespread Use

Background and Purpose

The capacity and availability of artificial intelligence (AI) have expanded dramatically in recent years. What was once the domain of major information technology companies and specialists is now accessible to individuals, small businesses, and public service providers. However, as AI becomes more pervasive, we must consider the potential repercussions and risks associated with its widespread use.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program seeks essays that delve into the multifaceted risks posed by (AI) over both the short and long term. Accepted essays will be published on the SOA webpage and will explore potential risks associated with a large-scale use of AI. In particular, we are looking for discussion of one or more potentially catastrophic risks that could result from unintended or misuse of AI.

With these issues in mind, the Society of Actuaries Research Institute is interested in an exploration of this topic from a variety of perspectives. The result of this effort is intended to initiate discussion regarding risks and impact of AI and set the stage for future research.

Scope

As Artificial Intelligence (AI) continues to advance, it holds immense promise for improving human lives like AI-powered medical diagnoses or more efficient traffic management. However, alongside its potential benefits, there are also significant risks that could emerge from its use. These are several important overarching considerations regarding the scope of this call for essays:

Short-Term AI Risks:

  • Magnitude of Consequences: In the short term, AI risks may manifest as privacy breaches, algorithmic bias, and job displacement. These immediate consequences impact individuals, organizations, and society.
  • Quantification: Quantifying these risks involves assessing the likelihood of specific events (e.g., a data breach) and their potential impact (e.g., financial losses, reputational damage).
  • Costs and Uncertainties: Organizations must weigh the costs of implementing safeguards against the uncertainties of risk occurrence.

Long-Term AI Risks:

  • Existential Threats: Over the long term, AI could pose existential risks. These include scenarios where AI surpasses human control, leading to unintended consequences.
  • Balancing Priorities: Balancing short-term benefits with long-term risks requires thoughtful consideration.
  • AI Alignment: Ensuring AI systems align with human values is crucial. Misaligned AI could lead to catastrophic outcomes.

Sample Topics of Interest for Essays

The organizers seek essays that address potentially catastrophic risks emerging from AI widespread use. This invitation has been deliberately written broadly to allow respondents the flexibility to address this topic from one or more perspectives and approaches. Respondents are free to choose from one or more of the following sample topics below or propose others that fall within the scope of this area as described in the above section. Please note that the list is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be considered. Respondents are welcome to address other questions or topics that fall under the general scope of this call for essays.

Sample topics include:

  • Black Box AI: Lack of transparency in AI decision-making can compromise accountability and trust.
  • Privacy Erosion: AI systems handling personal data could compromise privacy if not properly regulated.
  • Economic Disruption: Widespread automation due to AI could lead to job losses, economic inequality, errors in social benefit entitlements and social instability.
  • Biased Decision-Making: AI algorithms trained on biased data may perpetuate discrimination and exacerbate societal inequalities.
  • Malicious Use: AI can be weaponized for cyberattacks, misinformation, and surveillance.
  • Geopolitical Risks associated with AI.
  • The impact on insurance coverage or need for new products to address these risks.

Rules for Submission of Essays

Timeline

The deadline for submissions is May 31, 2024. Essays will be published as soon as possible in a formal collection.

Length and Instructions for Submission

Essays must be submitted in English with a desired length of between 500 to 2,500 words. There is no requirement for formal or extensive footnoting.

Author information must be submitted with the essay and include name; credentials or designations (if appropriate); title; organization/company; e-mail address; and phone number. Please provide all author information at the beginning of the essay.

Essays that contain any overt political statements, commercial content, and other inappropriate material will not be accepted. Articles must comply with the SOA's antitrust guidelines.

Please submit your essay via e–mail to Research-CC@soa.org.

Awards

Up to $10,000 in award money has been allocated for this call for essays. The review committee will select the leading essays and determine how to allocate the award money among them. Consideration will be given to creativity, originality and the extent to which an idea might help promote further thought in this area. In exchange for award money, selected authors will be required to assign all copyrights in their essays to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Authors are ineligible for awards if an essay is based on an SOA Research Institute-sponsored and funded research study conducted by the author. However, authors are welcome to submit such essays for publication consideration.

Publication and Presentation

Depending on how many essays are received and the range of the topic areas, a suitable format for electronic publication and dissemination will be selected. Essays may also be presented at an SOA meeting, webcast, or other professional development event.

In addition, other venues for publication or presentation of the ideas outside of the Institute will be considered. It is hoped that publication of the collected essays will further knowledge and stimulate discussion as well as promote future efforts in this area.

Rights Granted

Please understand that by submitting an essay for consideration, the essay author(s) is granting to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute an unlimited license to print or republish their essay, with proper attribution given to the author(s).

Questions

Please direct any questions regarding this Call for Essays to Research-CC@soa.org .