The Impact of Artificial Intelligence/Large Language Models (ChatGPT, Bard, etc.) on Investment Actuaries and Other Investment Professionals

Background and Purpose

Hardly a day goes by without a feature story about the latest reverberation from the expanding use of Artificial Intelligence/Large Language Models (tools) in a variety of settings. The pace of use (and misuse) of these tools, such as ChatGPT and Bard, has been explosive and shows no sign of abating. Many would argue we are on the cusp of a permanent paradigm shift in pedagogy and overall application of technology.

If and how this shift plays out, there is reason to think that it could impact in significant ways the nature and extent of work currently done by investment actuaries and other investment professionals. This could be as little as minor assistance with report writing to full delegation of analysis heretofore thought to require deep professional knowledge.

With these issues in mind, the Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Committee on Finance Research (CFR) and SOA Investment Section are interested in an exploration of this topic from a variety of perspectives. The result of this effort is intended to provide a useful resource for readers to become well-grounded on the issues surrounding the impact of these tools in an investment context and set the stage for future research.

Given both the immediate and long-term importance of this topic, the sponsors are simultaneously issuing both a call for essays and request for research proposals. The dual objectives of this effort are to:

Publish a collection of essays that represent a broad range of perspectives on these issues.
Sponsor a research project that provides an in-depth and expanded view on a topic related to these issues.

The next section of this document describes sample topics of interest for both the call for essays and request for proposals.

Special Consideration for Essays:

Given the topic of this call for essays, two categories of essay submissions have been established. Category 1 are essays written by individuals without help from any of these tools. Category 2 are essays written primarily by one or more of these tools. Each category of submitted essays will be reviewed separately for publication and award determination. Authors should note which category they are submitting their essays for consideration.

Additional submission requirements for essays and proposals are described in the subsequent sections.

Research Objective

The sponsors are seeking researchers and essayists to explore the multifaceted impacts of AI/Large Language Model tools on investment actuaries and investment professionals. The desired deliverable is a resource that catalogues major related issues while providing current considerations and potential future dynamics.

The intended audience for this effort is actuaries and other investment professionals.

The following are proposed categories and questions that may be addressed. It is important to note that it is not required or expected of researchers to try to address all of these topics. To maintain a reasonable scope, it is intended for researchers to be selective in which ones they cover.

In terms of time horizon, it is preferred that researchers address both current and future professional and investor considerations in the context of the applicable issues and questions. Although both forms of considerations are preferred, researchers are free to cover only one aspect. However, in either case, the proposal should clarify what will be covered.

Investment Actuaries and Investment Professionals

What are ways that these tools can be used for preparation of actuarial analyses for company investment portfolios? What are the most beneficial uses for such analyses? Which types of analyses may need to be approached with greater caution? For instance, how do you assess whether outputted information is reliable vs inaccurate/fabricated in this context? Can these tools themselves be used to help make such assessments? Which types of analyses are completely inapplicable or in other ways limited? How do the preceding considerations differ between now and in the future?
How would the issues in the previous bullet apply to investment professionals who advise on investment planning and prepare individual projections and other analyses?
What are uses of these tools for preparing reports that investment professionals may need to create for any purposes outside of actuarial analyses? How might this impact the current roles and responsibilities of investment professionals at different career stages? Are there positions that may become obsolete?
To what extent can these tools be used to professionally manage investments and portfolios? How can it be used to help market such services?
How do employers of investment professionals feel about these tools? Are they embracing the tools for their employees’ use or are they steering employees away from them? What discomfort may they have?
What are some of the biases and resulting risks associated with these tools?

Again, the list above is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be researched.

Proposers should thoroughly describe the issues on which they intend to focus in their proposals.

Rules for Submission of Essays

Timeline

The deadline for submissions is December 1, 2023. Essays will be published as soon as possible in a formal collection later in the year.

Special Consideration for Essay

Length and Instructions for Submission

Essays must be submitted in English with a desired length of between 500 to 2,500 words. There is no requirement for formal or extensive footnoting.

Author information must be submitted with the essay and include name; credentials or designations (if appropriate); title; organization/company; e-mail address; and phone number. Please provide all author information at the beginning of the essay.

Essays that contain any overt political statements, commercial content, and other inappropriate material will not be accepted. Articles must comply with the SOA's antitrust guidelines.

Essay Submission

Please submit your essay via e–mail to Research-AR@soa.org.

Awards

$5,000 in award money has been allocated for this call for essays. The review committee will select the leading essays and determine how to allocate the award money among them. Consideration will be given to creativity, originality and the extent to which an idea might help promote further thought in this area. In exchange for award money, selected authors will be required to assign all copyrights in their essays to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Authors are ineligible for awards if an essay is based on an Institute-sponsored and funded research study conducted by the author. However, authors are welcome to submit such essays for publication consideration.

Publication and Presentation

Depending on how many essays are received and the range of the topic areas, a suitable format for electronic publication and dissemination will be selected. Essays may also be presented at an SOA meeting, webcast, or other professional development event.

In addition, other venues for publication or presentation of the ideas outside of the Institute will be considered. It is hoped that publication of the collected essays will further knowledge and stimulate discussion as well as promote future efforts in this area.

Rights Granted

Please understand that by submitting an essay for consideration, the essay author(s) is granting to the Society of Actuaries Research Institute an unlimited license to print or republish their essay, with proper attribution given to the author(s).

Questions

Please direct any questions regarding this Call for Essays to Research-AR@soa.org.

Rules for Submission of Research Proposals

Proposal Requirements

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix)
A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The sponsors are interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.

Selection Process

The SOA Research Institute will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The Institute is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the Institute will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. A staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-AR@soa.org.

Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by December 1, 2023 to Research-AR@soa.org.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to Research-AR@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than December 15, 2023.

Conflict of Interest

You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Appendix

The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.

All Contracted Projects

This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.

Literature Reviews

This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.

Surveys

This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.

Future Actuaries

Major Meetings

Major Meetings

Major Meetings