Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends: Update for 2025 - 2035+
September 2024
Author
Thomas Getzen, PhD
Description
The Getzen Model is a long-term medical cost trend projection model based on 30+ years of observation. Some key observations from this year’s projection include the following:
- Long-run medical cost increases are estimated at 5.0% per year eventually declining to match the rate of increases in per capita incomes.
- The component assumptions of long-run medical cost increases are unchanged from last year.
- The Society of Actuaries Research Institute’s Getzen Model Project Oversight Group (POG) expects that there will be greater budgetary resistance and more regulation in the future which will limit the share of total incomes/GDP devoted to medical care.
Materials
Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends: Update for 2025 - 2035+
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Previous Models
Getzen Model Update for 2024-2034+
Getzen Model Update for 2023-2033+
Getzen Model Update for 2022-2030+
Getzen Model Update for 2021-2030+