Impact of COVID-19 and Other Causes of Death on Future U.S. Mortality - Expert Opinion Survey 3
February 2025
Ronora Stryker, ASA, MAAA
Senior Practice Research Actuary
SOA Research Institute
Executive Summary
On May 11, 2023, the U.S. Health and Human Services issued a press release on the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency1. Since then, new variants continue to emerge in the U.S. and abroad with XEC being the latest variant du jour. The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC) decided to revisit its earlier expert opinion COVID-19 surveys2 to see how views on the disease’s impact on future U.S. mortality may have changed. Additionally, the MLPSC was interested in how other causes of death may be influencing future mortality.
To gather insights into what the future may hold, a multidisciplined panel of experts, composed predominantly of actuaries, medical professionals, researchers, academics and demographers, participated in a survey during May through September 2024 examining how COVID-19 might affect future U.S. general population mortality. The panel also considered how future U.S. mortality for the life insured, annuitant and pension plan populations might differ from the general U.S. population. Four years were examined: 2024, 2025, 2030 and 2035 and for ages: 25, 45, 65 and 85.
Participants were asked to provide excess mortality estimates. They were instructed to assume 2019 levels for each age as the starting point for expected mortality calculations and adjust as necessary to trend forward to the appropriate projection period. Total excess mortality estimates were requested with and without COVID-19 as a cause of death for each projection year and age combination. Historical mortality information from 2019-2022 was provided as well as sample calculations for determining excess mortality. The participants also provided thoughts on factors influencing their excess mortality estimates.
Besides excess mortality, respondents opined on the most important current age groups to track over time and monitor in future experience as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Twenty-nine individuals participated in the survey. Most of the responses focused on the U.S. general population. Results were aggregated and analyzed. Participants had diverse opinions on how COVID-19 would impact future mortality. Unless otherwise noted, the analysis and comments presented in this paper are based on the average excess mortality estimates of the respondents and the most predominant responses selected by the participants.
Report
Impact of COVID-19 and Other Causes of Death on Future U.S. Mortality
Acknowledgements
The author’s deepest gratitude goes to those without whose efforts this project could not have come to fruition: the volunteers who generously shared their wisdom, insights, advice, guidance and arm’s-length review of this study prior to publication. Any opinions expressed may not reflect their opinions nor those of their employers. Any errors belong to the author alone.
The 29 mortality expert panel members who provided responses to the survey.
Project Oversight Group members:
Jean-Marc Fix, FSA, MAAA
Sam Gutterman, FSA, MAAA, CERA FCAS, FCA, HONFIA
Al Klein, FSA, MAAA
Max Rudolph, FSA, MAAA, CERA
At the Society of Actuaries Research Institute:
R. Dale Hall, FSA, MAAA, CERA, CFA, Managing Director of Research
Barbara Scott, Senior Research Administrator
At the Swiss Re Institute:
Sergio Lopez Jiminez, FIA, Head Life and Health Research and Forecasting
Ian Lennox, FIA, Senior Product Actuary
Daniel Meier, Ph.D., Aktuar SAV, Vice President, Life & Health R&D Manager
Florian Rechfeld, Ph.D., Vice President, Life & Health R&D Manager
Drew Tindall, FSA, MAAA, Senior Vice President, Head Applied R&D Americas
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