Impact of Climate Change and Wildfires on Outdoor Air Quality, Pollution and Morbidity and Mortality

Background and Purpose

Canadian wildfires have fueled smoke and haze over a large area of Canada and the U.S. impacting air quality and pollution. Wildfires in Hawaii, fueled by hurricane force winds, have had significant impact on the island of Maui, leading to both property damage and record number of deaths. The impacts of climate change leading to conditions favorable for wildfires to both exist and to spread have become a threat multiplier to the breadth and severity of these wildfires in the U.S. or elsewhere.

In addition to the fire events themselves, further reaching and longer-term impacts from the spread of wildfire smoke has occurred. The purpose of this project is to create a resource for actuaries and others to educate them on the potential insured risks from wildfires, pollution and air-quality issues to help in their current and future assessments of the impact of these issues to morbidity and mortality and to operations of life and health insurance companies.

Research Objective

The SOA Research Institute Mortality & Longevity Strategic Research Program and the Catastrophe & Climate Strategic Research Program Steering Committees [The Committees] are seeking researchers to investigate the impact of outdoor air quality and pollution on morbidity and mortality, with a focus on climate change including the impacts of wildfires focusing on regions where air quality has deteriorated significantly in recent history. The following are examples of proposed topics that may be addressed:

• Mortality and morbidity risk trends, both historical and future trends, which have been and will be impacted by climate change / wildfire / air quality issues
• How trends vary by region, risk class, and socio-economic variables, and over time
• What the future might hold, given these trends
• What the important risk factors are for those impacted by air quality issues and how impacts differ among individuals, and what the drivers are for morbidity and mortality impact. Differences between the general and insured populations are of interest.
• What are the impacts on specific causes of morbidity and mortality e.g., respiratory disease, cancer, and cardiovascular disease
• The implications to a Life Insurer and a Health Insurer
• Data sources to measure morbidity and mortality impacts from climate change / wildfires / air quality
• With respect to wildfires, what have been the ignition issues, mitigation issues, communication issues, modeling issues, and the resulting insurance consequences
• What is the role of risk management, adaptation, resilience with respect to climate/wildfire/air quality/mortality impacts
• What have we learned about concentration risk from the recent Hawaii wildfires?
• What can communities, individuals, insurers, do to mitigate the risks of air quality on morbidity and mortality?
• How can climate-related air quality risks from wildfires or other climate induced air pollution risks to morbidity and mortality best be quantified, disclosed and provided for by insurers from an actuarial perspective?

Note that the list above is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be researched.

Proposal Requirements

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

1. Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
   
   
2. An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, possible limitations of the analysis and how the proposed study adds to the existing body of work/knowledge in this area.
   
   
3. A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
   
   
4. Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
   As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix)
   
   
5. A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The Committees are interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
   
   
6. Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.

Selection Process

The Committees will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The Committees are responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the Committees will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-ML@soa.org.

Notification of Intent to submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by October 6, 2023 to Research-ML@soa.org.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to Research-ML@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than October 17, 2023. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end of November 2023.

Conditions

The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the Society of Actuaries in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.

Conflict of Interest

You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Appendix

The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.

All Contracted Projects

This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.

Literature Reviews

This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.

Surveys

This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.

The 33^rd-66^th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.