2024 Getzen Model Update
October 2023
Author
Thomas Getzen, PhD
Description
Similar to the prior model, long-run medical cost increases are estimated at 5.0% per year. Expected future inflation in the model was raised by +0.1% which was offset by a reduction in the expected rate of technologically induced excess cost increases by -0.1%. However, the POG now perceives greater budgetary resistance to future cost increases, estimating that the expected health share of GDP after ten years will be .190 rather than the .198 projected last year, and reducing the 50-year estimate to .226 from .238.
Materials
Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends: Update for 2024 - 2034+
Getzen Model Scenarios in 2050+
Questions or Comments?
If you have comments or questions, please send an email to research@soa.org.