Climate Risk, Catastrophe Modeling and Sustainability in Asia
Background and Purpose
In the face of global climate change, the risk of extreme weather events is escalating for ASEAN countries, many of which are coastal or island nations. Enhanced catastrophe risk modeling using local data is critical for understanding and mitigating these heightened risks. The SOA Research Institute is issuing this RFP to advance the field of catastrophe modeling (CAT), focusing on its application in reinsurance strategies and sustainable insurance product design. The key questions being asked are: What is the current state? What is evolving? What information can we share with the actuarial profession? What are the future insurance designs that address sustainability through better catastrophe modeling?
Research Objective
The SOA Research Institute is seeking researchers to assess the current state of CAT modeling in ASEAN markets and explore the potential actuarial perspectives in Asian markets. The following are examples of proposed topics that may be addressed:
- Evaluation of CAT risk models and their effectiveness in predicting and mitigating the impacts of specific types of extreme weather events in Asian markets.
- Innovative methods for integrating global and local climate data to improve accuracy and relevance.
- Case studies on the use of CAT models in developing reinsurance strategies in ASEAN markets.
- Proposals for new insurance products that leverage enhanced CAT risk models to promote sustainability.
Note that the list above is not meant to be exhaustive but merely examples of proposed topics that may be researched.
Proposal Requirements
To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:
- Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
- An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
- A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
- Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
As a guide for developing the project budget, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix) - A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The SOA Research Institute is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
- Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.
Selection Process
The SOA Research Institute will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The POG is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the POG will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.
Questions
Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-CC@soa.org.
Notification of Intent to submit Proposal
If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by July 12, 2024 to Research-CC@soa.org.
Submission of Proposal
Please email your proposal to Research-CC@soa.org; proposals must be received no later than July 26, 2024. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end of August 2024.
Conditions
The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).
The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the [Society of Actuaries/sponsoring entity] in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.
The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.
Conflict of Interest
You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.
Appendix
The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.
All Contracted Projects
This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 - $50,000.
Literature Reviews
This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 - $20,000.
Surveys
This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component.
The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 - $55,000.