Population Mortality and Mortality Trend Discrepancies At Older Ages

Background and Purpose

Actuaries often rely on trends seen in U.S. population mortality data for insured and pensioner modeling purposes, especially when insured and pensioner mortality data are not large enough to produce credible results.  Two common sources used by actuaries are mortality data developed and published by the Social Security Administration (SSA) and mortality data from the CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). As discussed in the recently released Society of Actuaries Research Institute reports for MP-2021 and MIM-2021-v2, historical mortality improvement trends differ among the two sources, primarily at ages older than 65, and can yield significantly different projected mortality improvement results.

The purpose of this project is to create a credible resource for actuaries to better understand the differences between these data sources to help them determine the appropriate U.S. population data source to use for specific actuarial applications.  In addition, the research will be used by SOA Research Institute committees to enhance mortality models and projected mortality improvement scales.

Research Objective

The Mortality and Longevity Strategic Research Program Steering Committee (MLPSC) is seeking researchers to examine the mortality trend discrepancies between SSA mortality data and NCHS mortality data.  The researcher will perform a literature review and original research to address the following:

• How is the data developed for each source?
• What are the methods used to develop estimates of mortality rates for each source?
• What methods are used to smooth the data, especially at extreme ages?
• What are the differences in historical mortality data and trends between SSA and NCHS mortality datasets?
• Given the discrepancies, what are the actuarial implications?
• What should actuaries do to address these implications? What are the advantages and disadvantages of using these data sources? How do these differ, if at all, by actuarial application? What adjustments should be made to resulting historical mortality trends?

Results will be summarized in a report to be made publicly available on the SOA website.

Proposal Requirements

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

1. Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.
2. An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.), emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.
3. A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources.
4. Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.
5. A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The MLPSC is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.
6. Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer's capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.

Selection Process

The MLPSC will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project.  The POG is responsible for recommending the proposal to be funded. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the POG will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Ronora Stryker, SOA Senior Practice Research Actuary, at research@soa.org.

Notification of Intent to submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by December 31, 2023 to Ronora Stryker at research@soa.org.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to Ronora Stryker at research@soa.org; proposals must be received no later January 15, 2024. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end February 2024.

Conditions

The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the [Society of Actuaries/sponsoring entity] in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.

The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries Research Institute which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.