2014 Living to 100 Monograph
Table of Contents by Session
January 8-10, 2014
Walt Disney World Swan Resort
Orlando, Fla.
The Living to 100 monograph is composed of the papers, panel discussions and keynote sessions presented at the symposium.
Program
Overview
Timothy F. Harris
General Session I: The Advancing Frontier of Human Survival
James Vaupel
Informal Discussion Transcript
Session 1A: Innovative Retirement Products
Optimal Retirement Tontines for the 21st Century: with Reference to Mortality Derivatives in 1693
Moshe A. Milevsky and Thomas S. Salisbury
Estimating the True Cost of Retirement
David Blanchett
The CBD Mortality Indexes: Modeling and Applications
Wai Sum-Chan, Johnny Siu-Hang Li, and Jackie Li
Discussant Comments
Kai Kaufhold
Informal Discussion Transcript
1B: Happily Ever After, Marriage and Old Age Mortality
Mortality, Health and Marriage: A Study Based on Taiwan’s Population Data
Hsin Chung Wang and Jack C. Yue
Spousal Concordance in Exceptional Longevity: The Interplay between Early Life, Marriage and Survival
Valérie Jarry, Alain Gagnon, Robert Bourbeau
Which Socio-Demographic Living Arrangement Helps to Reach 100?
Michael Poulain and Anne Herm
Discussant Comments
Jean-Marc Fix
Informal Discussion Transcript
1C: Panel: Perspectives and Implications to Stakeholders of Increasing Longevity
Moderator
Timothy F. Harris
Panelists
Robert L. Brown, Jennifer A. Haid, Sally Hass, Sandra Timmermann
2A: From Population to Insured Lives, Finding Longevity Drivers
Logistic Regression for Insured Mortality Experience Studies
Zhiwei Zhu and Zhi Li
Predictors of Exceptional Longevity: Effects of Early-Life Childhood Conditions, Mid-Life Environment and Parental Characteristics
Leonid A. Gavrilov and Natalia S. Gavrilova
Liars, Cheaters and Procrastinators: How They Upset Mortality Studies
R.C.W. “Bob” Howard
Discussant Comments
Tom Edwalds
Informal Discussion Transcript
2B: Behavior and Causes of Death: Impact on Mortality and Mortality Modeling
Obesity and Mortality
Sam Gutterman
Causes-of-Death Mortality: What Do We Know on Their Dependence?
Séverine Arnold (-Gaille) and Michael Sherris
Mortality of Smoking by Gender
Sam Gutterman
Discussant Comments
S. Jay Olshansky
Informal Discussion Transcript
2C: Panel: Developing a Winning Strategy to Address the Good, the Bad and the Wrinkled of Our Aging Workforce
Moderator
Anna M. Rappaport
Panelists
Donald Fuerst, Sally Hass, Haig Nalbantian
Informal Discussion Transcript
General Session II—Panel: Innovative Business Solutions to Respond to the Aging Society
Moderator
Anna Rappaport
Panelists
Cindy Hounsell, Tim Driver, Nigel Nunoo
Informal Discussion Transcript
General Session III—Learning from Genetics
Genetically Informed Longevity
Tom Bakos, Marc Klibanow, Nicholas Schork, Ali Torkamani, and Ashley Van Zeeland
How Genes Modulate Patterns of Aging-Related Changes on the Way to 100: Lessons from Biodemographic Analyses of Longitudinal Data
Anatoliy I. Yashin, Konstantin G. Arbeev, Deqing Wu, Alexander Kulminski, Liubov Arbeeva, Irina Kulminskaya, Igor Akushevich, and Svetlana V. Ukraintseva
Contribution of Familial Longevity to Living to 100
Paola Sebastiani, Stacy L. Andersen, Avery I. McIntosh, Lisa Nussbaum, Meredith D. Stevenson, Leslie Pierce, Samantha Xia, Kelly Salance, and Thomas T. Perls
Discussant Comments
Leonard Hayflick
Author's Reply
Tom Bakos
Informal Discussant Transcript
3A: Mortality Age Patterns: Trends and Projections
Coherent Projections of Age, Period and Cohort Dependent Mortality Improvements
Matthias Börger and Marie-Christine Aleksic
Measurement of Mortality among Centenarians in Canada
Nadine Ouellette and Robert Bourbeau
Mortality Trajectories at Extreme Old Ages: A Comparative Study of Different Data Sources on U.S. Old-Age Mortality
Natalia S. Gavrilova and Leonid A. Gavrilov
Discussant Comments
Johnny Siu-Hang Li
Informal Discussion Transcript
3B: Societal Changes and Adaptations as a Result of Longer Life Spans
How Well Have Retirement Systems Adapted to Longer Life?
Anna M. Rappaport
Abstract
Complete Paper
Mapping the Adequacy of Care and Support for the Elderly in Developed Countries
Doug Andrews
Abstract
Complete Paper
Supporting the Oldest Old: The Role of Social Insurance, Pensions and Financial Products
Jonathan Barry Forman
Abstract
Complete Paper
Discussant Comments
Robert Brown
Informal Discussion Transcript
3C: Panel: Data Sources and Projection Methods for Successfully Supporting the Needs of the Senior Market
Moderator
Jean-Marc Fix
Panelists
Louis Adam, W. Ward Kingkade, Jean-Marie Robine
Informal Discussion Transcript
4A: The Changing Age Distribution of Deaths
A Study of Measuring the Mortality Compression
Jack C. Yue
Abstract
Complete Paper
Modal Age at Death: Mortality Trends in England and Wales 1841–2010
Emily Clay
Abstract
Complete Paper
Compression of Morbidity and Mortality: New Perspectives
Eric Stallard
Abstract
Complete Paper
Jean-Marie Robine
4B: Longevity and Lifestyle
Living To 100: Socioeconomic Implications of Increased Longevity
Rick Gorvett
Abstract
Complete Paper
Perspectives on SOA Post-Retirement Risk Research and What It Tells About Implications of Long Life
Anna M. Rappaport
Abstract
Complete Paper
Subjective Survival Probabilities and Life Tables: Evidence from Europe
Franco Peracchi and Valeria Perotti
Abstract
Complete Paper
Discussant Comments
Arnold Dicke
Informal Discussion Transcript
4C: Panel: Proactive Strategies for Managing Long-Term Care Needs in Retirement
Moderator
John W. Paddon
Panelists
John Cutler, Steve Schoonveld, Sandra Timmermann
General Session IV: Could Moses Live to Be 120?
Nir Barzilai
Informal Discussion Transcript
General Session V: Mortality Projection from a Social Security Perspective
Panel
Moderator
Sam Gutterman
Panelists
Adrian Gallop, Stephen Goss and Jean-Claude Menard
Transcript
Mortality Projections for Social Security Programs in Canada
Office of the Chief Actuary
Abstract
Complete Paper
Informal Discussion Transcript
5A: Aging and Changes in Health Status
Survival Characteristics of Three Senior Populations, with a Focus on Life Settlements
Vincent J. Granieri and Gregory P. Heck
Abstract
Complete Paper
Modeling Medical Cost Trends for Advancing Age in the Long Run
Thomas E. Getzen
Abstract
Complete Paper
Sex Differences in Predictors of Health Decline: Results from a 16-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study
Steven G. Prus
Abstract
Complete Paper
Discussant Comments
Eric Stallard
Informal Discussion Transcript
5B: Longevity and Cognitive Impairment
Cognitive, Psychological and Social Drivers of Longevity
Gordon Woo and Anne Bruce
Is Secondary Prevention of Alzheimer’s Disease Possible? A Discussion of Studies in the Alzheimer’s Disease Field
Heather M. Snyder, Dean Hartley, Keith N. Fargo and Maria C. Carrillo
Abstract
Complete Paper
Discussant Comments
Jay Olshansky
Discussant Comments
Robert Pokorski
Informal Discussion Transcript
5C: Panel: Leaving Worries Behind: Risk Management Strategies for Individuals to Address the Economic Issues Related to Increased Longevity
Moderator
Arnold Dicke
Panelists
Christine Fahlund, Joseph E. Montminy, Robert A. Painter, William Silbert, Harrison C. Weaver
Informal Discussion Transcript
General Session VI
Regenerative Medicine: New Approaches to Health Care
Anthony Atala, M.D